نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار و عضو هیئت علمی دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

2 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

چکیده

کارایی صادرات بیانگر فاصله میزان صادرات واقعی صادرکنندگان از ظرفیت صادراتی بالقوه آن­ها در بازارهای هدف است که امروزه سنجش آن اهمیت قابل توجهی در راستای توسعه صادرات و تحلیل رقابت­پذیری آن­ها دارد. صادرات زعفران به عنوان با ارزش­ترین محصول کشاورزی جهان، اهمیت زیادی برای ایران دارد که در سال­های اخیر با کاهش­ روبرو بوده است. از این رو، نیاز است ابعاد مختلف آن مورد تحلیل و ارزیابی قرار گیرد. با توجه به نبود مطالعه­ای در خصوص کارایی صادرات زعفران، این مطالعه به دنبال سنجش کارایی صادرات ایران در 14 کشور مهم واردکننده زعفران است که بیش از 90 درصد واردات را به خود اختصاص داده­اند. جهت محاسبه کارایی، داده­های صادرات زعفران ایران به بازارهای هدف در دوره زمانی 2017-2001 با استفاده از الگوی جاذبه مرزی تصادفی برآورد شده است. نتایج کارایی بیانگر این است که کارایی صادرات زعفران ایران در گروه کشورهای مورد نظر در سال 2017 برابر با 45/0 است. تحلیل کشوری بیانگر این است که ایران در کشورهای اسپانیا (93/0) و امارات متحده عربی (87/0) به ترتیب بیش­ترین کارایی را داشته و در کشورهای ژاپن (07/0) و انگلستان (13/0) کم­ترین کارایی را داشته است. بر اساس نتایج، کارایی صادرات در بازارهای آسیایی افزایش یافته و از 31/0 در سال 2001 به 41/0 در سال 2017 رسیده است. با توجه به اثر مثبت متغیر منطقه­ای آسیا و نقش منفی فاصله جغرافیایی بر صادرات زعفران ایران و همچنین تغییر شبکه جهانی واردات زعفران از اروپا به آسیا، پیشنهاد می­شود که بازارهای آسیایی که از مزیت­های رقابتی بالاتری برای ایران برخوردار است، بیش از پیش مورد توجه سیاست­گذاران جهت صادرات زعفران قرار گیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Measuring the Export Efficiency of Iran’s Saffron

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hossein Mohammadi 1
  • Milad Aminizadeh 2
  • Hanane Aghasafari 2

1 Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad

2 PhD Candidate of Agricultural Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad

چکیده [English]

Export efficiency is the difference between actual exports and potential exports of exporting countries in destination markets, which nowadays measuring the efficiency has considerable importance in terms of export development and their competitiveness analysis. The export of saffron, as the most valuable agricultural product in the world, is of great importance to Iran, which has decreased in recent years. Therefore, its various dimensions need to be analyzed and evaluated. Due to the lack of a study on the efficiency of saffron exports, this study attempts to measure the export efficiency of Iran in 14 major saffron importers, which accounted for more than 90% of imports. To calculate the efficiency, the data of Iranian saffron exports to destination markets in the period of 2001-2017 have been estimated using a stochastic frontier gravity model. Efficiency results indicated that the efficiency of Iranian saffron exports in 2017 is equal to 0.45. The country analysis shows that Iran has the highest efficiency in Spain (0.93) and the United Arab Emirates (0.87), respectively, and has the lowest efficiency in Japan (0.07) and the United Kingdom (0.13), respectively. According to the results, the efficiency of exports in Asian markets has increased from 0.31 in 2001 to 0.41 in 2017. Considering the positive effect of the Asian regional variable and the negative role of geographical distance on Iranian saffron exports and also the change of the global network of saffron imports from Europe to Asia, it is suggested that Asian markets, which have higher competitive advantages for Iran, be considered by policymakers for saffron exports.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Export efficiency
  • Export potentials
  • Stochastic frontier gravity model
 
AghapourSabbaghi, M. 2019. Investigating the factors affecting the export of Iranian saffron to BRICS countries (Panel data approach). Journal of Saffron Agronomy and Technology 7 (3): 411-420. (In Persian with English Summary).
AlipourShirsavar, H., and Shirinpour, M. 2016. The effect of electronic customs administration on facilitating the export activities of export companies based in Gilan, Iran. Intellectual Economics 10 (2): 114-121.
Aminizadeh, M., Karbasi, A., Riahi, A., and Ramezani, M. 2020. Assessing the effect of Iran’s membership in trade agreements on saffron exports. Journal of Saffron Agronomy and Technology 7 (4): 537-549. (In Persian with English Summary).
Amiri, H., and AminiDaran, M. 2018. Factors affecting diversification of industrial exports in Iran. Iranian Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 13 (25): 65-91. (In Persian with English Summary).
AmiriAghdaie, S.F., and Roshan, J. 2015. Investigaying effective factors on Iran’s saffron exportation. International Review of Management and Business Research 4 (2): 590-600.
Amirtaimoori, S., and Amirtaimoori, S. 2015. The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on Iranian saffron exports. Journal of Saffron Research 4 (2): 199-209. (In Persian with English Summary).
Atif, R.M., Mahmood, H., Haiyun, L., and Mao, H. 2019. Determinants and efficiency of Pakistan’s chemical products’ exports: An application of stochastic frontier gravity model. PLOS ONE 14 (5): 1-15.
Bao, H.D., Minh, P.V., Thai, P.V., and Hieu, T.N. 2018. A stochastic analysis of vietnambilateral trade efficiency. Journal of Economics and Development 20 (2): 50-64.
Battese, G.E., and Coelli, T.J. 1988. Production of firm level efficiencies: With a generalized frontier production function and panel data. Journal of Econometrics 38: 387-399.
Battese, G.E., and Coelli, T.J. 1995. A Model for technical inefficiency effects in a stochastic frontier production function for panel data. Empirical Economics 20: 325-332.
Caporale, G.M., Sova, A., and Sova, R. 2015. Trade flows and trade specialisation: The case of China. China Economic Review 34: 261-273.
Centre d'Etudes Prospective et d'Informations Internationals. 2020. CEPII Database. Available at http://www.cepii.fr/ (visited 23 July 2019).
Doan T.N., and Xing, Y. 2018. Trade efficiency, free trade agreements and rules of origin. Journal of Asian Economics 55 (3): 33-41.
Dourandish, A., Aminizadeh, M., Riahi, A., and MehrparvarHosseini, E. 2019. Assessing the Role of Trade Sanctions and Global Economic Crisis on Iran’s Saffron Exports. Journal of Saffron Agronomy and Technology 6 (4): 499-511. (In Persian with English Summary).
Fallahi, E., and Mazraeh, F. 2018. Economic analysis of short-term and long-term effects of exchange rate uncertainty on the export of Iranian saffron. Journal of Saffron Agronomy and Technology 6 (3): 367-381. (In Persian with English Summary).
Ferto, I., and Szerb, A.B. 2017. The role of food crisis and trade costs in the Hungarian maize exports. Problems of Agricultural Economics 353 (4): 110-124.
Foster-McGregor, N., Isaksson, A., and Kaulich, F. 2016. Importing, productivity and absorptive capacity in Sub-Saharan African manufacturing and services firms. Open Economies Review 27: 87-117.
Hendizadeh, H., Karbasi, A., Mohtashami, T., and Sahabi, H. 2019. Ranking of socio-economic variables affecting the bilateral trade of saffron in Iran and business partners. Journal of Saffron Research 7 (1): 55-67. (In Persian with English Summary).
International Trade Center. 2020. www.trademap.org.
IsaiahZayone, T., Henneberry, S.R., and Radmehr, R. 2020. Effects of agricultural, manufacturing, and mineral exports on Angola’s economic growth. Energies 13 (6): 1-17.
Kalirajan, K. 1999. Stochastic varying coefficients gravity model: an application in trade analysis. Journal of Applied Statistics 26 (2): 185-193.
Karbasi, A., and Rastegaripour, F. 2014. Evaluation of comparative advantage on production and export of saffron. Journal of Saffron Agronomy and Technology 2 (1): 59-74. (In Persian with English Summary).
Khodaverdizadeh, M., and Mohammadi, S. 2017. Comparative advantages and analysis of international market structure of medicinal plants: Case study of Anise, Badin, Fennel and Coriander. Journal of Agricultural Economics Research 9 (34): 153-174. (In Persian with English Summary).
Koochakzadeh, S., and Karbasi, A. 2015. Study of the effective factors on the commerce of Iranian saffron. Journal of Saffron Agronomy and Technology 3 (3): 217-227. (In Persian with English Summary).
Kumar, S., and Prabhakar, P. 2017. India’s trade potential and free trade agreements: A stochastic frontier gravity approach. Global Economy Journal 17 (1): 1-19.
Liaquat, H., Gul, N., Irfan, A., and Sami, A. 2016. Pakistan’s exports efficiency: an application of the stochastic frontier gravity model. Abasyn Journal of Social Sciences. Special Issue: 164-177.
Mahdinia, M. 2018. Investigation on non-oil export developing obstacles case study (Exporter of Mazandaranprovince). Research Journal of Economics 2 (3): 1-5.
Mirbagheri, S.SH., Rafiee, H., and Akbarpour, H. 2019. Market structure analysis and export pattern of Iranian saffron. Iranian Journal of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants 35 (5): 802-818. (In Persian with English Summary).
Mohammadi, H., Aminizadeh, M., and Aghasafari, H. 2020. Investigating the Iran’s export efficiency in pistachio target markets: Application of stochastic Frontier Gravity Model. Agricultural Economics and Development 34 (1): 1-18. (In Persian with English Summary).
Mohammadzadeh, H., and Karbasi, A. 2019. The shock effect of oil revenues on the export of Iran saffron. Journal of Saffron Agronomy and Technology 7 (1): 125-136. (In Persian with English Summary).
Nasir, S., and Kalirajan, K. 2016. Information and communication technology-enabled modern services Export performances of Asian economies. Asian Development Review 33 (1): 1-27.
Nguyen, D.K., Phama, V.N.T., and Heo, Y. 2019. Impact of institutional and cultural distance on ASEAN’s trade efficiency. Economics Discussion Papers, No 2019-57, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
Noviyani, D.S., Na, W., and Irawan, T. 2019. Indonesian export efficiency: a stochastic frontier gravity model approach. International Journal of Scientific Research in Science, Engineering and Technology 6 (1): 488-497.
Paseban, F. 2007. Study of effective factors on the export of saffron. Economic Research Journal 6 (12): 1- 15. (In Persian with English Summary).
Ravishankar, G., and Stack, M.M. 2014. The gravity model and trade efficiency: a stochastic frontier analysis of eastern european countries’ potential trade. The World Economy 37 (5): 690-704.
Rezapoor, S., and Mortazavi, S.A. 2011. Effects of globalization on supply and demand export saffron. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics 4 (3): 153-169. (In Persian with English Summary).
Sadeghi, S.K., Khodaverdizadeh, S., and Khodaverdizadeh, M. 2011. Comparative advantage and world market structure of saffron. Journal of Agricultural Economic Research 11: 59-76. (In Persian with English Summary).
Shaban, M., Mahmoodi, A., and ShawkatFadai, M. 2014. A survey on technical efficiency, marketing and market structure of saffron crop, Iran. Journal of Saffron Agronomy and Technology 1(2): 85-101. (In Persian with English Summary).
Shahabadi, A., and Safaee, M. 2017. Effects of knowledge factors on supply of agricultural exports of Iran. Iranian Journal of Trade Studies 21 (84): 1-26. (In Persian with English Summary).
Sheng, Y., Wu, Y., Shi, X., and Zhang, D. 2014. Market integration and energy trade Efficiency: an application of malmquistindex to analyze multi-product trade’, in Han, P. and F. Kimura (eds.), Energy Market Integration in East Asia: Energy Trade, Cross Border Electricity, and Price Mechanism, ERIA Research Project Report FY2013, No.29.Jakarta: ERIA, pp. 135-161.
Tinbergen, J. 1962. Shaping the world economy: Suggestions for an international economic policy. New York, NY: Twentieth Century Fund.
Trade Promotion Organization of Iran. 2021. https://en.tpo.ir/Non–oil-Export
World Bank. 2020. World Bank Database. Available at https://databank.worldbank.org (visited 20 July 2019).