بررسی نقش تحریم‌های تجاری و بحران اقتصادی جهانی بر صادرات زعفران ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

2 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

3 کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد کشاورزی، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

4 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی ، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

10.22048/jsat.2017.85769.1231

چکیده

زعفران یکی از مهم‌ترین محصولات صادراتی کشاورزی ایران است که در سال‌های اخیر نتوانسته جایگاه خود را در بازار جهانی حفظ و تقویت کند. دو پدیدة تحریم‌های تجاری اتحادیة اروپا علیه ایران (2014-2006) و بحران اقتصادی جهانی (2009-2007) به ترتیب به صورت مستقیم و غیرمستقیم بر اقتصاد و جریان تجاری ایران اثرگذار بوده‌اند. با توجه به روند نامعلوم تحریم‌های اتحادیة اروپا در خصوص لغو یا استمرار آن و احتمال بروز بحران اقتصادی جهانی جدید، هدف پژوهش پیش رو، افزون بر شناسایی مؤلفه‌های اثرگذار، ارزیابی نقش و میزان اثرگذاری این دو مؤلفه بر صادرات زعفران ایران است. بدین منظور، صادرات زعفران به شرکای تجاری در دورة 2014-2001 با استفاده از الگوی جاذبه و برآوردگر درستنمایی شبه بیشینه پوآسن مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. بر اساس نتایج، متغیرهای اندازة اقتصاد، درآمد کشورهای واردکننده و موافقت‌نامه‌های تجاری اثری فزاینده و معنی‌دار و متغیرهای فاصله و تفاوت‌ اقتصادی اثری کاهنده و معنی‌دار بر صادرات زعفران داشته‌اند. نتایج گویای اثر منفی و معنی‌دار تحریم‌های تجاری اتحادیه اروپا و بحران اقتصادی جهانی بر صادرات زعفران ایران است. به عبارتی سبد شرکای تجاری ایران به گونه‌ای است که بحران اقتصادی نقشی تعیین‌کننده بر صادرات زعفران دارد. از این رو، پیشنهاد می‌شود در تدوین برنامة راهبردی بلندمدت به منظور تقویت جایگاه ایران در بازار جهانی زعفران، نقش تحریم‌های تجاری و بحران اقتصادی و اهمیت آن دیده شود و متناسب با آن سبد بهینه‌ای از شرکای تجاری انتخاب شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessing the Role of Trade Sanctions and Global Economic Crisis on Iran’s Saffron Exports

نویسندگان [English]

  • Arash Dourandish 1
  • Milad Aminizadeh 2
  • Andisheh Riahi 3
  • Elham Mehrparvar Hosseini 4
1 Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural Economics Department, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
2 - PhD Student of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural Economics Department, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
3 Master of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural Economics Department, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
4 PhD Student of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural Economics Department, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Saffron is one of Iran’s exports of agricultural products that it could not keep and strengthen its position in the world market at recent years. Two events such as European Union trade sanctions against Iran (2006-2014) and global economic crisis (2007-2009) have directly and indirectly impacts on Iran’s economy and trade flows, respectively. According to process uncertainty about the abolition or continuation of the European Union trade sanctions and the possibility of a new global economic crisis, the aim of this paper is assessing the role of these two factors on Iran’s saffron exports. For this purpose, saffron exports to trading partners were analyzed by using gravity model and poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimator in 2001-2014 periods. Based on the results, economic size, importer’s income and regional trade agreement have positive effect and distance and difference in GDP per capita have negative and significant impacts on saffron exports. The Results indicated that EU trade sanctions and global economic crisis have significantly negative effects on Iran’s saffron exports. In other words, due to Iran’s trading partners, global economic crisis have important role in saffron exports. Therefore, it is suggested that role of trade sanctions and economic crisis and their importance be considered to adopt long run strategic plan in order to strengthen Iran’s position in saffron world market and optimal basket of trading partners to be selected.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • gravity model
  • Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimator
  • Economic crisis
  • European Union sanction
  • Saffron
Aminizadeh, M., Rafiee, H., Riahi, A., and Mehrparvar Hosseini, E. 2014. Pattern of competitiveness of pistachios world premier exporters in Iran's importers market. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics 8 (2): 41-68. (In Persian with English Summary).
Azarbayejani, K., Tayebi, S.K., and Safa Dargiri, H. 2015. The effect of US and EU economic sanctions on bilateral trade flows between Iran and its major trading partners: an application of gravity model. Journal of Economic Research 50 (3): 539-562. (In Persian with English Summary).
Bojnec, S., and Ferto, I. 2015. Institutional determinants of agro-food trade. Transformations in Business and Economics 14 (2): 35-52.‏
Caporale, G.M., Sova, A., and Sova, R. 2015. Trade flows and trade specialization: The case of China. China Economic Review 34: 261–273.
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales. 2017. CEPII Database. http://www.cepii.fr/.
Cortright, D., and Lopez, G. 2000. The Sanctions Decade: Assessing UN Strategies in the
1990s. Lynne Rienner, Boulder, CO.
Dullien, S., Kotte, D.J., Marquez, A., and Priewe, J. 2010. The Financial and Economic Crisis of 2008-2009 and Developing Countries. United Nations Publication, ISBN 978-92-1-112818-5.
Daneshvar, M., Karbasi, V., and Sarvari, A. 2005. Globalization and its effects on exports of saffron. Articles Collections Second National Conference of Saffron. Mashhad, Iran. (In Persian).
Ghodoosi, M., Mohtashami, T., Motavalli Habibi, M., and Sheddati, S. 2016. Identification and prioritization of marketing mix elements affecting the export of saffron from the perspective of experts. Journal of Saffron Agronomy and Technology 3 (4): 285-296. (In Persian with English Summary).
Hufbauer, G.C., Schott, J.J., and Elliott, K.A. 1990. Economic Sanctions Revisited: Supplemental Case Histories. Washington DC: Institute for International Economics.
Hufbauer, G.C., Schott, J.J., Elliott, K.A., and Oegg, B. 2007. Economic Sanctions Reconsidered. 3rd, Institute for International Economics, Washington DC.
Hufbauer, G., Schott, J., Elliott, K.A., and Oegg, B. 2009. Economic Sanctions Reconsidered: History and Current Policy. Third ed. Institute for International Economics, Washington,
DC.
Hufbauer, G.C., Schott, J.J., Elliott, K.A., Muir, J., and Cosic, M. 2012. Case Studies in Economic Sanctions and Terrorism: Case 2006-1 UN, US (EU) v. Iran. Peterson Institute for International Economics, 1-109.
Kahouli, B., and Makttouf, S. 2015. The determinants of FDI and the impact of the economic crisis on the implementation of RTAs: A static and dynamic gravity model. International Business Review 24 (3): 518-529.
Kazerooni, A., Ghorbani, A., and Saghafi Kalvanagh, R. 2015. A study of unilateral and multilateral sanctions effectiveness on Iran's non-oil foreign trade products. Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics 2 (1): 83-98. (In Persian with English Summary).
Kohansal, M.R., and Tohidi, A. 2015. Experimental study of the impact of foreign exchange rate fluctuations on Iran's Saffron export demand: A dynamic pooled mean group (PMG) approach. Saffron Agronomy and Technology 3 (1): 34-42. (In Persian with English Summary).
Koochakzadeh, S., and Karbasi, A. 2015. Study of the effective factors on the commerce of Iranian saffron. Journal of Saffron Agronomy and Technology 3 (3): 217-227. (In Persian with English Summary).
Koochakzadeh, A., and Koochakzadeh, S. 2013. Effect of exchange rate uncertainty on exports saffron; Application Auto Regressive Distributed Lag. National Conference on the Latest Scientific Achievements of Saffron, Iran, 30 October 2013. (In Persian).
Levin, A., Lin, C.F., and Chu, C.S.J. 2002. Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties. Journal of Econometrics 108 (1): 1-24.‏
McKibbin, W.J., and Stoeckel, A. 2009. The potential impact of the global financial crisis on world trade. Policy Research, Working Paper 5134.
Mehrparvar Hosseini, E., Aminizadeh, M., Rafiee, H., Riahi, A., and Bastani, M. 2013. Designing of Iranian dates trade model; application of trade advantages and theory of market structure. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics 7 (2): 19-46. (In Persian with English Summary).
Mohammadi, H., and Mousavi, S.N. 2011. Impact of financial crisis in global economy on pistachio and saffron export. Journal of Agricultural Economic and Development 19 (75): 135-162. (In Persian with English Summary).
Mousavi, S.N., Jowkar, M., and Farajzadeh Z. 2013. Iranian market power in saffron world market. Journal of Agricultural Economic and Development 21 (83): 129-149. (In Persian with English Summary).
Natale, F., Borrello, A., and Motova, A. 2015. Analysis of the determinants of international seafood trade using a gravity model. Marine Policy 60: 98-106.‏
Neuenkirch, M., and Neumeier, F. 2016. The impact of US sanctions on poverty. Journal of Development Economics 121: 110–119.
Pasban, F. 2007. Study of effective factors on the export of saffron. Economic Research Journal 6 (12): 1- 15. (In Persian with English Summary).
Paudel, C.R., and Burke, P.J. 2015. Exchange rate policy and export performance in a landlocked developing country: the case of Nepal. Journal of Asian Economics 38: 55-63.
Popova, L., and Rasoulinezhad, E. 2016. Have sanctions modified Iran’s trade policy? an evidence of Asianization and de-europeanization through the gravity model. Economies Journal 4 (4): 1-15.
Raj, J.F., and Roy, S. 2014. Impact of financial crisis in asia. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 133: 336-345.
Rezapoor, S., and Mortazavi, S.A. 2011. Effects of globalization on supply and demand export saffron. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics 4 (3): 153-169. (In Persian with English Summary).
Salami, H., and Pishbahar, E. 2001. Changes in the pattern of comparative advantage of agricultural products in Iran: an empirical analysis based on the revealed comparative advantage indices. Journal of Agricultural Economic and Development 34: 67-99. (In Persian with English Summary).
Shepherd, B., and Wilson, N.L. 2013. Product standards and developing country agricultural exports: The case of the European Union. Food Policy 42: 1-10.‏
Silva, S.J.M.C., and Tenreyro, S. 2006. The log of gravity. Review of Economics and Statistics 88 (4): 641–658.
Taghavi, M., Shayegani, B., Gaffari, F., Monsef, A., and Niakan Lahiji, A. 2012. Does gravity model work for the selection trade partners among SCO members? (The Case Study of Iran). Journal of American Science 8 (10): 747-753.
Tinbergen, J. 1962. Shaping the world economy: suggestions for an international economic policy. New York, NY: Twentieth Century Fund.
Ulengin, F., Cekyay, B., Palut, P.T., Ulengin, B., Kabak, O., Ozaydin, O., and Ekici, S.O. 2015. Effects of quotas on Turkish foreign trade: A gravity model. Transport Policy 38: 1–7.
Viorica, E.D. 2015. Econometric analysis of foreign trade efficiency of E.U. members using gravity equations. Procedia Economics and Finance 20: 670-678.
Wei, G., Huang, J., and Yang, J. 2012. The impacts of food safety standards on China's tea exports. China Economic Review 23 (2): 253-264.‏
World Bank Database. 2017. http://data.worldbank.org/.
World Trade Organisation. 2017. https://www.wto.org/.
Yueh, L. 2013. Understanding Global Imbalances. Procedia Social and Behavioral Sciences 77: 31–36.