نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصادی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

2 استاد گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصادی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

3 استاد گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

چکیده

دشت مشهد در استان خراسان رضوی و جزو دشت‌های ممنوعه و ممنوعه‌ی بحرانی است. با عنایت به اینکه در اثر بهره‌برداری‌های بی‌رویه و غیرمجاز از منابع آب زیرزمینی، سـطح آب زیرزمینـی در آن بـه تدریج پایین رفته و با کسری مخزن مواجه شدهاست ، انتخاب استراتژی‌های مناسب برای کاهش مصرف آب در این دشت ضروری است. سیاست‌های متنوعی برای کاهش مصرف آب کشاورزی توسط محققین پیشنهاد گردیده که از جمله آنها سیاست توسعه کشت محصولات با نیاز آبی پایین همچون زعفران است. این سیاست ممکن است راه حل مناسبی برای مقابله با مصرف روزافزون آب باشد اما از آنجا که سیاست‌های مختلف دارای ابعاد اقتصادی متفاوتی می‌باشند، لذا بایستی تاثیرگذاری هر سیاست در تحقق اهداف و همچنین پیامدهای هر سیاست با دقت مورد بررسی قرار گیرند. در این راستا پیامدهای سیاست گسترش کشت زعفران در 5 سناریوی تخصیص حداقل 5%، 7.5%، 10%، 12.5% و 15 درصد از کل سطح زیرکشت 3 شهرستان واقع شده در دشت مشهد(مشهد، بینالود و چناران)، با استفاده از مدل برنامه‌ریزی ریاضی اثباتی بررسی شد. نتایج نشان داد که با اعمال این سیاست، در هر 3 شهرستان درآمد کشاورزان افزایش خواهد یافت اما مصرف آب فقط در شهرستان بینالود به مقدار کمی کاهش می‌یابد و در دو شهرستان دیگر تغییری نمی‌کند زیرا با گسترش کشت زعفران، به جای کاهش سطح زیرکشت محصولات با نیاز آبی بالا، سطح زیرکشت گندم و جو که نیاز آبی کمتری نسبت به زعفران دارند کاهش می‌یابد و بنابراین کاهشی در مصرف آب ایجاد نمی‌شود. بنابراین سیاست گسترش کشت زعفران توام با عدم کاهش مجموع سطح زیر کشت گندم و جو باشد و اثرات آن مورد بررسی قرار گرفت و مشاهده گردید که اعمال این سیاست باعث می‌شود که مصرف آب در هر سه شهرستان کاهش و درآمد کشاورزان به نحو مطلوبی افزایش یابد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigation of Saffron Cultivation Development Policy To Reduce Water Consumption In Mashhad Plain

نویسندگان [English]

  • Morteza Ashrafi 1
  • Mahmood Hoshmand 2
  • Mohammad Reza Lotfalipour 2
  • Kamran Davary 3

1 PhD. Student Of Economics,Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative sciences ,Ferdowsi University of Mashhad

2 Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative sciences ,Ferdowsi University of Mashhad

3 Professor, Department of Water Science and Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad

چکیده [English]

Mashhad plain is one of plains of Khorasan Razavi province, which is one of the prohibited and critical prohibited plains. Due to unlicensed and unauthorized exploitation, the groundwater level has been gradually lowered and with a deficit of reservoir. Therefore, choosing the right strategies to reduce water consumption in this plain is necessary. Various policies have been proposed to reduce agricultural water consumption by researchers, including the policy of expanding crops with low water requirements such as saffron. This policy may be a good solution to tackling the increasing use of water, but since different policies have different dimensions and effects, each policy must be explicitly examined for the impact of each policy, as well as the implications of each policy. In this regard, the consequences of the policy of extending the cultivation of saffron in three scenarios of allocating 5%, 10% and 15% of the total land area of the three counties located in Mashhad Plain was investigated using a positive mathematical programming model. The results showed that with the application of this policy, in all three cities, the income of farmers will increase, but water consumption will decrease only slightly in Binalud, and will not change in other two cities. Because with the expansion of saffron cultivation, instead of reducing the level of products with a high water requirement, the level of wheat and barley that requires less water than saffron is reduced, and therefore no reduction in water consumption. So, In the following, it was examined whether the policy would be to increase the cultivation of saffron, along with the absence of a decrease in total surface area of wheat and barley. It was observed that the application of this policy would reduce the consumption of water in all three cities and increase the income of farmers

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Water requirment
  • Positive Mathematical Programming
  • Binalood
  • Chenaran
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