بررسی عوامل اجتماعی-اقتصادی اثرگذار بر سیستم ناپایدار کشت پر تراکم زعفران (مطالعه موردی: شهرستان گناباد)

نوع مقاله: مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی مقطع کارشناسی ارشد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه‌ی دانشگاه تهران

2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه دانشگاه تهران

3 دانشجوی مقطع دکتری تخصصی گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه‌ی دانشگاه تهران

10.22048/jsat.2018.100615.1261

چکیده

شهرستان گناباد در استان خراسان رضوی یکی از مناطق عمده کشت زعفران در کشور به شمار می‌رود که متأسفانه عملکرد مزارع زعفران این شهرستان طی سالیان اخیر کاهش چشم­گیری داشته است. بررسی‌های میدانی و نظرات مهندسین کشاورزی حاکی از آن است که کشت متراکم زعفران می‌تواند به عنوان یکی از دلایل کاهش عملکرد مطرح باشد. زیرا کشت متراکم این محصول اگرچه که باعث شروع زودتر دوره بهره‌برداری می‌شود، اما به دلیل ایجاد رقابت بین بنه‌ها، بر عملکرد گیاه در سال‌های بعد اثر منفی دارد و طول دوره بهره برداری را کاهش می‌دهد. ضمن این­که امکان کشت مجدد زعفران در آن مزرعه تا مدتی طولانی وجود نخواهد داشت. از این رو پژوهش حاضر با هدف بررسی تأثیر تراکم کشت بر عملکرد مزارع زعفران و تعیین عوامل اجتماعی- اقتصادی اثرگذار بر سیستم ناپایدار کشت پرتراکم زعفران صورت پذیرفت. به منظور  تحلیل داده‌ها از مدل هکمن دو مرحله‌ای که شامل یک الگوی پروبیت و یک الگوی رگرسیون خطی می‌باشد، در یک دوره 6 ساله طی سال‌های 1390 تا 1395 استفاده گردید. در نهایت متغیرهای سن، آگاهی کشاورزان نسبت به عوامل کاهش عملکرد، و شرکت در کلاس‌های آموزشی و ترویجی به عنوان عواملی شناخته شدند که تأثیر منفی و معنی‌داری بر تراکم کشت داشته و از این جهت می‌توانند موجب جلوگیری از کشت پرتراکم این محصول شوند.  متغیرهای درآمد و سطح تحصیلات اثر مثبت و معنی‌داری بر تراکم کشت دارند و اثر متغیر بیمه محصولات کشاورزی در هیچ‌کدام از دو مدل معنی‌دار نیست. لذا آگاهی ‌بخشی به کشاورزان از طریق کلاس‌های آموزشی و ترویجی و همچنین استفاده از تجارب کشاورزان مسن و باتجربه به منظور جلوگیری از کشت پرتراکم این محصول توصیه می‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the effective socioeconomic factors on unsustainable system of high-density planting of saffron (case study: Gonabad county)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammadreza Ramezani 1
  • Hamed Rafiee 2
  • Hossein Norouzi 3
1 M.Sc. Student of Agricultural Economics Discipline, Economics and Development Faculty, University of Tehran
2 Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics Discipline, Economics and Development Faculty, University of Tehran
3 Ph.D. Student of Agricultural Economics Discipline, Economics and Development Faculty, University of Tehran
چکیده [English]

Gonabad township in the Khorasan Razavi province is one of the largest saffron producers in Iran. Unfortunately, the yield of saffron farms in Gonabad has decreased drastically in recent years. Evidence and the opinions of agricultural engineers suggest that high-density planting can be considered as one of the main reasons of yield decrease. With high-density planting, the operation period of saffron farms will start sooner. However, it will decrease the length of operation period tremendously. Furthermore, the farm will not be suitable for saffron cultivation for a long time. Therefore, the present study was conducted with the aim of investigating the effect of high-density planting on yield of saffron farms and determining the socio-economic factors affecting unsustainable system of high-density planting. Data of the first 6-years of farms (2011-2016) were collected and in order to analyze the data, a two-stage Heckman model which include a Probit model and a linear regression model was used. Our study findings show that farmers' age, awareness towards factors that reduce yield of saffron farms, and attending training courses are three factors that have a negative and significant impact on planting density. In other words, these three factors could prevent planting of saffron in high density. Farmers' income and their level of education are two factors which are considered to have a positive and significant impact on planting density. Finally, crop insurance does not have a significant impact in either one of the two models. Therefore, we strongly recommend that farmers should be warned of factors that cause yield decreases throughout training courses. Also, we recommend using of the experience of old and experienced farmers in order to prevent planting saffron in high densities.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Unsustainable system
  • 2-Stage Heckman model
  • Saffron
  • Gonabad

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