الگوی برنامه ریزی توسعه کشت زعفران با تأکید بر مدیریت منابع آبی

نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش‌آموخته کارشناسی ارشد، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربت حیدریه، ایران.

2 استاد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، ایران

3 استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربت حیدریه، ایران.

10.22048/jsat.2018.105171.1271

چکیده

پایین بودن بازدهی آب مصرفی در بخش کشاورزی اتخاذ استراتژی‌های بهینه‌سازی الگوی کشت و لذا مصرف آب را، به‌خصوص در مناطق کم‌آبی همچون کشور ایران ضروری کرده است. زعفران می‌تواند محصولی مناسب ازنظر صرفه‌جویی در مصرف آب باشد. هدف از اجرای این مطالعه بررسی تأثیر توسعه کشت زعفران بر تخصیص منابع آب و افزایش درآمد کشاورزان از طریق به‌کارگیری الگویی مبتنی بر رهیافتی توسعه‌یافته از برنامه‌ریزی ریاضی مثبت است که در آن امکان اعمال توسعه کشت در آینده، به همراه برآورد تخصیص آب از طریق یک تابع تولید مبتنی بر مقدار آب آبیاری، وجود دارد. نمونه‌ موردبررسی را 200 نفر از بهره برداران زعفران در شهرستان‌های تربت‌حیدریه و زاوه دراستان خراسان رضوی در سال 94-1393 تشکیل می‌دهد. اطلاعات با استفاده از نرم‌افزار GAMS مورد تجزیه‌وتحلیل قرارگرفته است. نتایج سناریوهای افزایش در سطح زیر کشت زعفران، پیامدهای مثبت این سیاست را افزایش سود خالص و کاهش مصرف آب در سطح هر سه گروه مزارع کوچک، متوسط و بزرگ ارزیابی می کند که بیانگر تأثیر اجرای آن بر حفظ و پایداری منابع آب منطقه است. نتایج سناریوی افزایش منابع آب در دسترس که به بهره‌برداران امکان می‌داد بخشی از زمین‌های بالقوه خود را به کشت زعفران اختصاص دهند، نتایج یکنواختی برای گروه‌های مختلف مزارع نشان نمی‌دهد. به‌طوری‌که افزایش در سطح زیر کشت زعفران در مزارع کوچک به میزان 43/38 هکتار، در مزارع متوسط 11/52 هکتار و در مزارع گروه سوم 3/47 هکتار برآورد شده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Programming model of Saffron cultivation extension with emphasis on water resources management

نویسندگان [English]

  • Bahareh Zandi Darehgharibi 1
  • Alireza Karbasi 2
  • Toktam Mohtashami 3
1 M.Sc. Agricultural Economics, Torbath-Heydarieh
2 Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
3 Assistant professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Torbath Heydarieh
چکیده [English]

Low efficiency of water use in agricultural sector, make in nessesery to do strategies for optimization of cropping pattern and therefore water consumption, especially in dried areas such as Khorasan Razavi province. Principal selecting of these strategies needs that the results may be evaluated using relevant simulation models. Saffron can be the right product in terms of water saving. The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of saffron area expansion on the allocation of water resources and increase the income of farmers through the use of a model based on an extended Positive Mathematical Programming model that includes the possibility of future develop in cropping patterns, along with water allocation through a production function based on the amount of irrigation water. Required data are collected from 200 questionnaires completed by saffron producers in Torbat-e Heydarieh and Zaveh counties in year 2014. The data collected was analyzed using the software GAMS and imposing different senarios on three group of small, medium and large farms. Results of the increase in saffron cultivation shows change in cropping patterns from higher water demand products towards saffron. Positive results of this policy are increase in net income and decreasing water consumption in all three type of farms. Results of increase in available water resources that allow farmers to exploit part of the dedicated land to the cultivation of saffron, do not show uniformity results for different groups of farms. This implies that, in addition to pricing, other strategies such as investing in new technologies to improve water use and water resource management may improve economic statement and agricultural development, especially on small farms of this area.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Water management
  • Positive Mathematical Programming
  • Plant Programming
  • Saffron
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