عوامل مؤثر بر مدیریت ریسک کشاورزان زعفران‌کار (مطالعه موردی: شهرستان قاینات)

نوع مقاله: مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیارگروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان

2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان

3 استادگروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

4 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشدگروه اقتصاد دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان

10.22048/jsat.2019.132153.1301

چکیده

ریسک در فعالیت‌های کشاورزی، تأثیر بسزایی در تولیدات کشاورزی دارد و ریسک تولید کشاورزان بر اقتصاد خانوار به تبع آن بر اقتصاد جامعه اثر گذار است. از این­رو شناسایی عوامل و تعیین کننده­های مهم مؤثر بر مدیریت ریسک کشاورزان از اهمیت خاصی برخوردار است. این مطالعه با هدف شناسایی عوامل تأثیرگذار بر ریسک زعفران­کاران قاینات صورت گرفته است. نمونه آماری با استفاده از روش نمونه‌گیری تصادفی از 120 زعفران‌کار این شهرستان در سال 1396 جمع­آوری شده است. نتایج با استفاده از تقریب تابع الگوریتم ژنتیک نشان داد که از 44 فاکتور، عامل‌های عملکرد، آبیاری، زمان فروش، راهنمای کارشناسان، کیفیت آب، بذر جوان‌تر و پس‌انداز با ریسک زعفران‌کاران قاینات رابطه مثبت دارد و همچنین فاکتورهای متنوع‌سازی فعالیت­ها، حل اختلاف، فروش کل، هزینه خرید پیاز با ریسک زعفران­کاران رابطه منفی دارد. در این راستا پیشنهاد می­شود که به منظور کاهش شاخص ریسک زعفران­کاران راهنمایی­های کارشناسان را ارتقاء داده تا اختلافات بین زعفران­کاران را به حداقل ممکن کاهش یابد و همچنین با افزایش زمان فروش و پس انداز، ریسک زعفران­کاران را کاهش داد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

(Identification Risk Factors on Saffron Producers in Qaenat by Genetic function Algorithm )

نویسندگان [English]

  • ُSeyyed Mehdi Hosseini 1
  • Amir Dadrasmoghadam 2
  • Alireza Karbasi 3
  • Ahmad Vandaki 4
1 University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran.
2 Department of Agricultural Economics, Sistan and Baluchestan University, Zahedan, Iran
3 Department of Agricultural Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
4 University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Identification Risk Factors on Saffron Producers in Qaenat by Genetic function Algorithm
Abstract
Risk in agriculture has a significant impact on agricultural production, and farmers' risk to household economies has an impact on the economy of society. Hence, identification of important factors and determinants affecting farmer risk management is of particular importance. The aim of this study to identify the factors affecting the risk of saffron Qaenat. The statistical sample was collected by using random sampling method from 120 saffron makers of this city in 2017. The results showed that there were positive relationships between 44 factors, yield factors, irrigation, sales time, expert guidance, water quality, younger seed, and money savings with saffron risk factors. Also, the factors of diversification Activities, dispute settlement, total sales, the cost of buying onions with the risk of saffron. In other words, ten fundamental factors were identified using the method of approximation of the genetic algorithm function. The results of the estimation with logit model also showed that sales time and money saving have a significant effect, but other variables in logit regression are not significant. In this regard, it is suggested that, in order to reduce the risk management of the saffron, experts should be promoted and the differences between saffron producers minimized, as well as by increasing the sales and saving time, the risk management of the saffron reduced.
Keywords: Risk, Saffron, Genetic Function Algorithm, Logit

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • risk
  • Saffron
  • Genetic function algorithm
  • logit
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