ارزیابی اثر عضویت ایران در موافقت‌نامه‌های تجاری بر صادرات زعفران

نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

2 استاد اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

3 کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

10.22048/jsat.2019.127121.1292

چکیده

امروزه کشورهای در حال توسعه به منظور دستیابی به بازارهای هدف ایمن‌تر و کاهش موانع تجاری، سعی به حضور در توافق‌نامه‌های تجاری دارند. ایران نیز در موافقت‌نامه‌های تجاری سازمان همکاری‌های اقتصادی (ECO) و نظام جهانی ترجیحات تجاری (GSTP) حضور دارد. با وجود آن که به طور عمومی این باور وجود دارد که حضور در موافقت‌نامه‌های تجاری به طور کلی اثری مثبت بر جریان تجارت کشورها دارد، ولی هیچ تضمینی برای اثر مثبت آن بر تجارت همه کشورها و کالاها وجود ندارد. با توجه به اهمیت صادرات زعفران برای ایران، هدف پژوهش حاضر پاسخ به این پرسش است که آیا عضویت ایران در توافق‌نامه‌های تجاری موجب افزایش صادرات زعفران به کشورهای واردکننده عضو شده است؟ برای دستیابی به این هدف، از الگوی جاذبه و داده‌های صادرات زعفران در دوره زمانی 2001-2014 استفاده گردید. نتایج نشان داد که متغیرهای درآمد و جمعیت واردکنندگان زعفران اثری مثبت و معنی‌دار و متغیرهای فاصله جغرافیایی و بحران اقتصادی اثری منفی و معنی‌دار بر صادرات زعفران داشته است. براساس نتایج، عضویت ایران در موافقت‌نامه‌های تجاری اثری منفی و معنی‌دار (475/3-) بر صادرات زعفران ایران داشته است. به عبارتی عضویت در موافقت‌نامه‌های تجاری نتوانسته موجب افزایش صادرات زعفران ایران به شرکای تجاری عضو در موافقت‌نامه‌ها شود. این موضوع بیانگر این است که صادرکنندگان علی‌رغم وجود ظرفیت‌های مناسب نتوانسته‌اند که از آن بهره ببرند، لذا پیشنهاد می‌شود که شرکت‌های صادراتی زعفران، از بسترهای نهادی و قانونی ایجاد شده به واسطه حضور ایران در این موافقت‌نامه‌های تجاری جهت اتخاذ سیاست‌ها و استراتژی‌های مناسب بازاریابی بلندمدت جهت افزایش صادرات زعفران ایران به شرکای تجاری عضو توافق‌نامه و توسعه سبد بازارهای صادراتی هدف بهره ببرند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessing the Effect of Iran’s Membership in Trade Agreements on Saffron Exports

نویسندگان [English]

  • Milad Aminizadeh 1
  • Alireza Karbasi 2
  • Andisheh Riahi 3
  • Mohammadreza Ramezani 1
1 PhD Student of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
2 Professor of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
3 Master of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Developing countries try to attend in trade agreements to achieve safer target markets and reduce trade barriers. Iran also is in trade agreements such as economic cooperation organization (ECO) and global system of trade preferences (GSTP). While there is generally believed that presence in trade agreements generally has positive effect on countries trade flows, there is no any guarantee for positive effect on all countries and products. So, due to the importance of saffron exports for Iran, the aim of this paper is to answer the question of whether Iran’s membership in trade agreements has led to increase the saffron exports to member importing countries. For the purpose, gravity model and saffron exports data in the period of 2001-2014 are used. The results showed that income and population of saffron importers has positive and significant effects, while geographical distance and economic crisis has negative and significant effects on saffron exports. Based on the results, Iran’s membership in trade agreements has significantly negative effect (-3.475) on Iran’s saffron exports. In other words, membership in trade agreements cannot lead to increase Iran’s saffron exports to member trading countries in agreements. Therefore, it is suggested that exporting companies of saffron use the opportunities provided by participating in these trade agreements to take appropriate marketing policies and strategies in order to increase Iran's saffron exports to member trading partners in the agreement.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Trade agreement
  • Saffron
  • gravity model
  • Iran
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