Saffron Agronomy and Technology

Abstract Water resources, as one of the most critical inputs in agricultural production, have faced increasing constraints in recent years due to climate change and unsustainable exploitation. This situation underscores the need to optimize cropping patterns and enhance water productivity. The objective of this study is to examine the effects of changes in irrigation methods and water-reduction scenarios on crop yield and net profit within the cropping pattern of the Hamadan–Bahar Plain, with particular emphasis on saffron, a strategic crop for strengthening agricultural resilience. During the 2023–2024 agricultural year, crop yield simulations were conducted under three irrigation methods (surface, sprinkler, and drip irrigation) combined with deficit irrigation scenarios of 5%, 8%, and 10%. The simulated yield results were subsequently incorporated as inputs into a Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) model to assess the impacts of yield changes on total agricultural net profit. The findings indicate that crop yields varied significantly across the three irrigation methods, and under the 10% deficit irrigation scenario, most crops experienced noticeable yield reductions. Consequently, saffron was introduced into the cropping pattern due to its low water requirement and high economic potential. A comparative assessment of irrigation methods revealed that drip irrigation consistently outperformed surface and sprinkler systems across all scenarios, effectively compensating for yield losses and mitigating reductions in farm income. Economic results further demonstrated that expanding saffron cultivation, alongside the adoption of modern irrigation technologies, not only offset the profit losses associated with water scarcity but, in some scenarios, increased net agricultural income relative to the baseline condition. Therefore, integrating saffron cultivation development with drip irrigation systems can be recommended as a sustainable and economically viable strategy for water resource management and for enhancing the resilience of agriculture in the Hamadan–Bahar Plain.

Abstract Climate change is one of the key challenges affecting agricultural sustainability across many plains of Iran. In recent decades, decreased precipitation and rising temperatures in Iran’s arid and semi-arid climates—particularly in the Hamedan–Bahar plain—have led to reduced water resource efficiency and increased instability in agricultural production. Under these circumstances, identifying and evaluating climate-resilient cropping options is essential to enhance the adaptive capacity of regional agriculture. This study aims to assess the effectiveness of saffron cultivation as an economically viable and climate-compatible strategy in the Hamedan–Bahar plain. First, projected trends in temperature and precipitation were analyzed using climate scenario data for the synoptic station at Hamedan Airport. Subsequently, the yields of saffron and other common regional crops were simulated under these scenarios using a crop growth and yield simulation model. A mathematical programming model was then developed to maximize net agricultural profit and to examine the impact of changing crop yields on the cropping pattern under different climate scenarios. The results indicate that, under all three future climate scenarios, the average yield of major crops such as wheat, barley, and potato is expected to decline by approximately 2–4%. In contrast, saffron yield is projected to increase by an average of up to 3% across the scenarios. Furthermore, both the cultivated area and net profit from saffron exhibit an upward trend toward 2050. Notably, even under the pessimistic scenario, incorporating saffron into the cropping pattern leads to a net profit increase of more than 2% compared to the baseline. These findings underscore saffron’s potential as an economically attractive, low-risk, and climate-resilient crop, highlighting its role as an effective adaptation strategy to complement previously studied measures under future climate conditions.

Abstract Innovation is the cornerstone of economic development and the essential pathway for business advancement. This concept encompasses the generation of novel ideas that can be applied to address new and fundamental challenges. In fact, innovation has led to increased productivity and profitability, access to new markets and improvement of existing markets. Therefore, for the success of their operations, businesses must turn to different forms of innovation, therefore, considering the need to increase the performance of the saffron industry, one of the basic solutions is to identify the existing innovations of this industry. In this regard, this study has identified innovations in the saffron processing industries of Khorasan Razavi Province. This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-survey in terms of nature and method, and is based on a mixed research approach (qualitative and quantitative). The study population consisted of saffron industry experts in 2024, who were selected using the snowball sampling method. Data analysis and the application of the Fuzzy Delphi method were carried out using SPSS and Excel software. The results of the Pentagonal Fuzzy Delphi method showed that 16 of the 25 identified innovations were innovations in the saffron processing industry. Also, the results showed that the development of a new processed saffron product, fundamental changes in technology at the macro and national level, improvement of the current saffron product and new methods in the production method were among the most important innovations identified. According to the findings of this research, it is suggested that saffron processing industries pay attention to the development of new processed products such as saffron beverages and teas to increase their global market share while creating added value. Also, cooperation between the government and the private sector to facilitate access to modern technologies and the use of advanced automation systems in production processes will help improve quality and reduce costs. Ultimately, using innovative methods in digital production and branding can help strengthen competitiveness and increase exports of this product.

Abstract The development of effective innovations in businesses is recognized as a fundamental challenge due to the high level of uncertainty and complexities involved. Rapid technological advancements and the necessity for innovation have led to widespread changes in businesses globally. Agricultural businesses, especially in production, processing, packaging, distribution, and marketing sectors, connect various components of the value chain. Within this context, the saffron industry, with its unique characteristics, plays a crucial role in this process. Several factors influence the success or failure of saffron industry businesses, and among these, innovation is seen as the main pillar of economic and strategic development for enhancing saffron industry businesses. This study examines the role of innovation in the development of saffron processing and transformation businesses in Khorasan Razavi province. The study's population consists of saffron processing companies in Khorasan Razavi, with a sample of 120 companies selected using stratified random sampling, analyzed in 2024. The results of structural equation modeling showed that technological innovation positively impacts product, process, and market innovation. Additionally, the positive effect of research and development innovation on product, process, organizational, and market innovation was confirmed. Ultimately, it was concluded that product and process innovation have a positive effect on the development of saffron processing and transformation businesses. Accordingly, it is suggested that companies produce innovative products with high added value by utilizing localized technologies such as solar dryers and developing research collaborations with regional universities. Also, strengthening smart packaging and digital marketing infrastructure can pave the way for sustainable and export-oriented development of these businesses.

Abstract Identifying the relative advantage of products is necessary for the implementation of spatial planning policies and achieving the optimal cropping pattern in different regions of the country. It is especially important to identify the capacity of different provinces in the production of saffron (as an export product) to increase the production and export of these products with the least possible cost. Therefore, the main goal of this research is to investigate the relative regional advantage of damask saffron production in Iran. In this study, in order to measure the regional relative advantage of Iran's provinces, spatial coefficient (LQ) and symmetrical spatial coefficient (SLQ) indexes have been calculated with the data of year 2016-2023 and for three different production baskets. The results showed that the provinces of South Khorasan, Razavi Khorasan, and North Khorasan have had a relative advantage in all years of the study (stable advantage). The provinces of Isfahan, Ilam, East Azerbaijan, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, Khuzestan, Semnan, Fars, Kerman, Kermanshah, Golestan, Lorestan, Hamedan, and Yazd have reached a relative advantage in some years of the study, and in some other years they have not had a relative advantage (fragile relative advantage). The results showed that the provinces of South Khorasan, Razavi Khorasan, and North Khorasan have had a relative advantage in all years of the study (stable advantage). The provinces of Isfahan, Ilam, East Azerbaijan, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, Khuzestan, Semnan, Fars, Kerman, Kermanshah, Golestan, Lorestan, Hamedan, and Yazd have reached a relative advantage in some years of the study, and in some other years they have not had a relative advantage (fragile relative advantage). According to the results, it is recommended that provinces whose comparative advantage has been proven in this study focus on saffron production and implement appropriate production, promotion, and educational programs to promote the production and cultivation of these products. Other provinces that do not have a comparative advantage should focus more on other products in which they have a comparative advantage in the short term.

Abstract Saffron is considered one of the most valuable commercial products in the world. Considering the commercial value of saffron, the domestic and foreign trade in Iran has always had a significant boom and expansion. Therefore, it is very important to evaluate the welfare benefits of the domestic trade, especially in competitive conditions. Therefore, in the present study, the welfare benefits of regional saffron trade in Iran were evaluated. For this purpose, with mathematical modeling, the components of Iran's saffron market were evaluated in competitive conditions compared to the existing conditions in the base year of 2022. Based on this, at first, the parameters of saffron supply and demand functions were estimated by the provinces of the country using the maximum entropy method. Next, the components of the saffron market among different provinces were simulated in the form of a spatial equilibrium. The results showed that in competitive conditions, the average price changes and the amount of supply and demand of saffron in the country will not change significantly. Therefore, the current conditions of the saffron market are very close to perfect competition market. Nevertheless, in competitive conditions, the price of each product unit in Razavi Khorasan, South Khorasan, and North Khorasan provinces increases relatively more than in other provinces. The increase in the price of saffron in these conditions in the three provinces of Khorasan leads to a decrease of about 4 to 6 percent in the demand for this product. The decrease in demand in competitive conditions also happens in several other provinces. Finally, the results of this research showed that in the competitive conditions of saffron trade, the increase in social welfare is mainly aimed at the suppliers of Razavi Khorasan, South Khorasan, and North Khorasan provinces. At the same time, the average social benefits of the whole society, looking at the sum of welfare surpluses of suppliers and demanders, do not change significantly compared to the basic conditions. On this basis, based on the obtained results, the application of various support policies was discussed to increase the welfare benefits of the beneficiaries of the saffron market.

Abstract Given the global impact of climate change and the consequential water crisis in arid regions, there is an urgent need to guide agriculture, a pivotal economic infrastructure, towards crops that are both low water-consuming and climate-compatible. Saffron emerges as a plant showcasing ecological compatibility and productivity in Herat province, Afghanistan, and East Khorasan, Iran. Strengthening saffron cultivation and implementing effective growth strategies not only reinforces the region's economy but also contributes to environmental preservation, mitigating various adverse effects. As crops heavily rely on climate and water resources, the development of saffron cultivation requires careful planning based on a comprehensive assessment of production conditions and the region. Consequently, this research aims to present a strategic plan for the development of the saffron supply chain in Herat province, particularly in Qourian County, Afghanistan. The study employed the SWOT method to identify internal and external factors. Through interviews with experts and subsequent weighting, the most significant strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats were identified. Following the identification of factors and sub-factors in the SWOT model, four strategies—SO (Strengths-Opportunities), ST (Strengths-Threats), WO (Weaknesses-Opportunities), and WT (Weaknesses-Threats)—were determined. Ultimately, in selecting the optimal strategy for saffron industry supply chain development in Herat Province, Qourian County was prioritized based on the level of importance. The results of the final weight analysis for each group of factors identified conservative strategies, such as "training farmers for proper cultivation and processing," "distribution of short-term and long-term loans for saffron farmers and processing, service, and export companies," as well as "organizing an international exhibition to promote Afghanistan's saffron product," as the most suitable strategies.

Abstract This study used the benefit-cost analysis and various financial indicators, such as Net Present Value, Benefit-Cost Ratio, Internal Rate of Return, and Payback Period, to determine the economic feasibility of saffron production under controlled conditions in Mazandaran province. Data for calculating these financial indicators were collected through field surveys, questionnaires, interviews with experts and specialists from the Agriculture Jihad Organization of Mazandaran province, and by obtaining fixed and variable costs as well as income from the establishment of controlled environment spaces for saffron production (spaces with areas of 200 square meters, 1000 square meters, and 5000 square meters) from agricultural service centers. The collected data were analyzed and evaluated using COMFAR software version 3.3, and the results, including financial indicators and sensitivity analysis under different scenarios, were presented. The findings suggest that at a discount rate of 18% and an inflation rate of 35.06%, establishing a saffron production unit on a 200-square-meter plot is not financially viable within a seven-years. (one year for construction and six years for operation). However, for plots with areas of 1000 and 5000 square meters, the internal rate of return is 36.85% and 53.99%, respectively, making them financially viable. According to the project ranking test, increasing the plot area for saffron production under controlled conditions leads to higher financial profitability. Furthermore, based on the sensitivity analysis results, it was identified that increasing product sales income has a more significant impact on project profitability compared to reducing fixed and variable costs. Positive steps such as increasing production, effective marketing, and improving product quality can enhance profitability.

Abstract Saffron is one of the most valuable agricultural products in the global market. Iran has the largest area under cultivation and the highest production of this crop. However, Iran's share of the value added of saffron in the global market is unacceptable and declining, which indicates the many challenges facing this industry. The purpose of this research is to explain the hidden structures of the challenges of production, processing, and marketing, and to rank the most important challenges of the saffron industry in Torbat Heydarieh, Iran, which is the world's saffron center. The necessary data were collected in 2023 using a convenience sample of 108 questionnaires. The challenges were ranked using Friedman's test and the weight coefficients obtained from factor analysis. Principal component analysis was used to identify the hidden patterns in the challenges of production, processing, and market (domestic and international) of the saffron industry in Torbat-e Heydarieh. The challenges were then ranked using Friedman's test and the weight coefficients obtained from factor analysis. The study found that the most important challenge facing the saffron industry in the production sector is climate change, in the processing sector is the need for high working capital, in the international markets is strict customs regulations, and in the domestic markets is the lack of cooperation of the rural cooperative to purchase the product. Factor analysis revealed that the most important hidden components in the production sector are "production instability" and "low production efficiency"; in the processing sector, "technical and infrastructural challenges" and "financial challenges"; in the domestic market, "lack of development of the domestic competitive market" and "weak domestic market institutions"; and in the international market, "lack of access to foreign markets" and "poor saffron quality in foreign markets."

Abstract Iran's recent years of experience show that the economy's dependence on crude oil sales results in instability of export income. Saffron is one of the important export items of the agricultural and medicinal plants sector, which in recent years has despite the increase in the area under cultivation and production, the export has not grown in line with it. Khorasan Razavi province is one of the leading provinces in the production and trade of this product. This study aims to present the multidimensional index of export development and examine the factors affecting this index regarding the saffron product in Khorasan Razavi and its trading countries in the period of 2011-2020. The necessary statistics and information were collected from 24 exporting companies active in this field in Razavi Khorasan province and 14 exporting companies in Germany, Italy, India and China by completing a questionnaire. In order to investigate the foreign trade network of saffron and the factors affecting the export development index, a three-dimensional panel model was used. The export development index was measured using the sub-indices of export performance, export management and export strategy. The results showed that the company's history, company size, marketing strategies, export standards, research and development costs, government support policy index, and government foreign diplomacy, value of domestic products, brand development and marketing mixes are among the factors affecting the development index. It is the export of medicinal plants.

Abstract Among the risks that threaten banks and financial institutions, credit risk is the most important risk due to its centrality, volume of operation and especially its sensitivity. Due to the lack of proper transportation equipment and communication infrastructure and the need to manager water resources and initial capital for advertising and packaging, a major part of Saffron producers in the northeast of the country and especially Zaveh city in Khorasan Razavi province, use banking facilities to provide floating capital. However, for reasons that cause agricultural risk, part of the facilities granted to them is not returned every year and causes the risk of non-repayment for the bank. Accordingly, the aim of this research is to measure the credit risk of facilities granted to Saffron producers in Zaveh city. Examined information is related to 16.000 real customers from three branches of Keshavarzi bank located in Zaveh city from the beginning of 2017 to the end of 2019, which has been analyzed using the Logit model. According to the results, it can be said that specialization of loans in the agricultural sector, payment to technical and trained people and non-renewal of these facilities on time, along with better follow-up and supervision can improve credit risk efficiency. Also, due to the greater impact of financial characteristics than personal characteristics in customer default, getting closer to Islamic banking in which the bank is the partner of facilities in economic activities and the individual's contribution is considered as a guarantee, may better cover credit risks while freeing the core collateral to select better customers.

Abstract Saffron is one of the non -export products that belong to Iran more than half of it global market. In the last two decades, the export price of saffron has been declining. Continuing this process by reducing exports can have important welfare consequences for producers, exporters and consumers. In this regard, the present study aimed to evaluate the welfare effects of saffron export prices in the world market on the aforementioned groups. The analytical tools used include domestic supply and demand functions and export supply, which was estimated by the series data during the period of 1980-2020. The findings of the study indicate a significant effect of reducing export prices on saffron exports. It has been found that the price of exporting producers and exporters is suffering from welfare, but the welfare of domestic consumer's increases, which is far less than the welfare of the two groups. Welfare analysis showed that in the saffron market if the monopoly in the market of these products completely disappeared, the total welfare of the said groups would be reduced by about 53 percent. It is suggested that before the producers are harmed, support programs should be prepared for this group specifically so that in case of changes in the world market, with the support of the product, it will be possible to continue production. Until now, the export price has always been much higher than the domestic price and exporters have been able to make a profit, so to support producers, transferring income from exporters in the form of a production protection fund can be a political solution. This fund can also be used as a tool to reduce the volatility of exporters' income.

Abstract Investigation the Relationship between Saffron warehouse receipt's price fluctuations and saffron future trading volume in Iran Mercantile Exchange (IME)

Abstract

The Present article examines the effect of future trading volume on warehouse receipt's price fluctuations and the two way communication between them, in order to analyze mixture of Mixture of Distribution Hypothesis (MDH) and Sequential Information Arrival Hypothesis (SIAH).For this purpose, this study using the relationship between linear and non-linear causality between these variables. Results indicate that there is a two linear causality relationship between warehouse receipt’s price fluctuation and future trading volume. To investigate the existence of non-linear causality between the two under studied, variables VAR model residual was used. The BDS test Results on VAR model residuals show the existence of a non-linear relationship between the mentioned variables. The results of the non-linear granger causality test based on neural network show that futures trading volume are the cause for price fluctuations in saffron warehouse receipt and therefore it can be stated that In Saffron trading in Iran commodity exchange, information flows from futures market to cash market and speculation in saffron warehouse receipt market as a stabilizer could not affect future trading prices.

Materials and Methods:

In this study, ARMA models are used to analyze the time series production process and then Garch model to extract time series fluctuations of saffron warehouse receipts, VAR model to use model residuals and to recognize the existence of nonlinear relationships between variables. The linear and nonlinear Granger causality test has been used to examine the causality, which explains the nonlinear Granger causality test and its related preparations. To use nonlinear tests such as Granger nonlinear causality test, first it is necessary to ensure the existence of nonlinear relationships between variables, which is done by the BDS test, which is described below. After proving the existence of nonlinear relationships between variables, in this study, we used artificial neural networks and R software to investigate the existence of nonlinear causality.The results of BDS test on the residuals obtained from the VAR model between the variables show the existence of a non-linear relationship between the variables. The results show that although the existence of causality between the studied variables is proved linearly, but due to the non-linear effects between the variables and Granger nonlinear causality test, price fluctuations of warehouse receipts cannot be the cause of saffron futures volume. This means that information is flowing from the saffron futures markets to spot market, and since price fluctuations in warehouse receipt cannot be a reason for the volume of saffron futures transactions, It can be stated that speculation in the commodity deposit certificate market will not lead to changes in the trading volume of futures and as a result the price will not stabilize in future periods.

Abstract Agriculture plays a pivotal role in Iran’s economy by increasing production, exports, and employment and supplying food needs. Therefore, according to the country’s strategic goals to develop non-oil exports, saffron has been paid attention as one of the most important agricultural products due to its high income and currency earnings. However, the exports of this product to target markets have been reduced in recent years. On the other hand, the complexities of the global trade network have led the countries operating in this network to increase their specialization. Import specialization improves the supply chain to provide the food needs of importing countries, which play a key role in trade. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the specialization pattern of saffron importing countries and analyse its impact on Iran’s exports using the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood method over 2001-2017. According to the results, the coefficient of the variable relative import advantage (RMA), as a proxy of import specialization, is positive and significant, thus having a significant effect on Iranian saffron exports. In addition, per capita GDP and population affect Iran’s saffron exports positively and significantly, while the coefficients of geographical distance and food crisis are negative and statistically significant. Therefore, due to the increasing specialization of saffron-importing countries and its significant effect on Iran’s exports, exporters are suggested to focus on close target markets with high per capita income and a high degree of specialization.

Abstract Export efficiency is the difference between actual exports and potential exports of exporting countries in destination markets, which nowadays measuring the efficiency has considerable importance in terms of export development and their competitiveness analysis. The export of saffron, as the most valuable agricultural product in the world, is of great importance to Iran, which has decreased in recent years. Therefore, its various dimensions need to be analyzed and evaluated. Due to the lack of a study on the efficiency of saffron exports, this study attempts to measure the export efficiency of Iran in 14 major saffron importers, which accounted for more than 90% of imports. To calculate the efficiency, the data of Iranian saffron exports to destination markets in the period of 2001-2017 have been estimated using a stochastic frontier gravity model. Efficiency results indicated that the efficiency of Iranian saffron exports in 2017 is equal to 0.45. The country analysis shows that Iran has the highest efficiency in Spain (0.93) and the United Arab Emirates (0.87), respectively, and has the lowest efficiency in Japan (0.07) and the United Kingdom (0.13), respectively. According to the results, the efficiency of exports in Asian markets has increased from 0.31 in 2001 to 0.41 in 2017. Considering the positive effect of the Asian regional variable and the negative role of geographical distance on Iranian saffron exports and also the change of the global network of saffron imports from Europe to Asia, it is suggested that Asian markets, which have higher competitive advantages for Iran, be considered by policymakers for saffron exports.

Abstract Given the dynamic nature of saffron exports in the country, the analysis of export growth of this product based on the difference between export values ​​between two specific times, does not give a proper understanding of the stability of trade relations between Iran and exporting partners. Considering the importance of saffron exports, this study investigates the export relations of this product during the period 1997-2018 using the Kaplan Meyer survival function and estimating the semi-parametric Cox model. The results of Kaplan Meyer's analysis showed that only 20% of saffron export relations remained until the end of the period under review. Estimates obtained from the Cox model also showed that factors such as higher production, longer trade relations, and higher GDP of countries, decreased the risk of losing an export relationship by 0.006%, 0.33%, and 0.007%, respectively. Also, exports to Asian countries have a lower risk of loss than other countries. Given these results, boosting exports to trading partners with larger economies, and establishing marketing networks and product supply chains which ensures a more coordinated and sustainable supply of the product is important and recommended.

Abstract Given the importance of saffron corms in improving crop yields, it is necessary to supply standard corms that meet the standards required to ensure high yields, especially in the early years of cultivation. Given that currently, there is no official market for this product (standard corm), this study attempted to use the conditional valuation method to measure the maximum willingness to pay of saffron farmers for this non-marketed product, while investigate the factors affecting the selection of this type of corms. The study population consisted of 150 saffron growers in Torbat Heydariyeh and Zaveh area of Razavi Khorasan province. Using Multiple Logit Model to determine factors affecting the selection of one of the certified saffron corms (Type A, corm weighing 5-10 g and up to 60% flowering in the first year, Type B corm weighing 10-15 g and 80% flowering in the first year, Type C corms weighing 15-20 g and up to 90% flowering in the first year, Type D corms weighing more than 20 g and more than 90% flowering in the first year), it was found that increase in education, area, pre-crop treatment and having a lateral occupation significantly increases the probability of selecting corms type A. In contrast, increasing of age and onion weight decreases the likelihood of selection of these corms. Likewise, in selection of B and C corms, education, area of cultivation, lateral occupation, age and pre-cultivation treatment were found to be significant and effective. After estimating the parameters of the Multi Logit model, the expected mean value of willingness to pay (WTP) was set at 82500 Rials, which is higher than the current average price of corms available on the market indicating that saffron growers are willing to pay more for these certified corms.

Abstract This study aimed to improve the level of quality classification of saffron and increase farmers' profits by creating a hypothetical market to investigate the factors affecting selection and the willingness of farmers to pay for saffron quality testing using contingent valuation method and open-ended question. data were collected by a questionnaire from a random sample of 170 saffron producers in Khorasan Razavi province. Two-stage Heckman model was used to identify the factors influencing choice and estimation of willingness to pay. data analysis showed that about 48 percent of farmers are willing to pay an additional amount for a quality test, of which 29 percent showed willingness to pay more than 900,000 rials per kilogram of flower. The results of the model's estimation also showed that age, education, land ownership and history of saffron quality testing in the past have a positive and significant effect on the likelihood of choosing and the amount of willingness to pay extra for quality testing. Accordingly, the use of proper and comprehensive training, holding public organizations and promotional activities can play an effective role in encouraging farmers to conduct quality tests.
Key words: Saffron, Willingness to pay, Contingent valuation, Two-stage Hackman model.

Abstract Saffron is one of the most valuable and important agricultural products in Iran, and, it is necessary to consider the preferences of consumers to develop its market. Consumers have different needs and wants, and by benefit segmenting the saffron market, companies can understand customers' preferences in each segment of the market correctly. Therefore, in this study, using the crisp and fuzzy clustering algorithms, the saffron market was divided into homogenous segments, and then, using the results of the conjoint analysis; consumer preferences, attitudes, and demographic characteristics were examined in each saffron market segment. The necessary data were collected from 400 respondents using a stratified sampling method from 13 districts of Mashhad, Iran. The results of this study showed that the saffron market could be divided into six homogeneous segments, and the fuzzy C-means clustering algorithm performs better at finding clusters than k-means, k-medoids, fuzzy Gustafson-Kessel and fuzzy Gath-Geva methods. According to the study findings, in most market segments, the weight of saffron and the packaging type are the most important attributes influencing purchase decisions. Based on the study results, it is suggested that saffron companies consider consumer preferences in different market segments when supplying saffron products and formulating marketing strategies.

Abstract Iran is the largest producer and exporter of saffron in the world, but in recent years, Iran's share of the global market for this national strategic product has been declining. Currently, Iranian saffron export brands do not have a good competitive position compared to brands in other countries, which are mainly importers of Iranian saffron. According to most experts, one of the main reasons for this is the lack of attention to the branding of Iranian export saffron in both theoretical and practical areas. The present study aimed to identify the causes and consequences of the core phenomenon of the Iranian saffron export branding model. In the present study, data collection tool was in-depth semi-structured interviews and its statistical population included members of the Khorasan Razavi Saffron Exporters Union. Purposive sampling method was used at the beginning and theoretical sampling was used during the research process and sampling continued until the theoretical saturation was reached. The Grounded Theory approach and three steps of open, axial and selective coding were performed for data analyzing. The results showed that the category of "Iranian Saffron Export Brands Coalition" is the Core phenomenon of this model. The results showed that the category of "Iranian Saffron Export Brands Coalition" is the core phenomenon of this model, the causes of the coalition include four categories: self-sanction, macro decision-making system, Iranian saffron industry disease and self-harm of exporters and its consequences including three categories of synergy in branding, stabilization and value creation. The achievements of the present study can be used as an indigenous model in decision-making of all stakeholders and policy makers of the Iranian saffron industry in terms of maintaining and developing the competitive position of Iranian saffron and saffron export brands.

Abstract Nowadays due to the intensity of competition and continuous changes in environmental conditions, identification of customers' needs and wants is essential to gaining competitive advantage in domestic and international markets. Saffron is one of the most valuable and important agricultural products in Iran, and for the development of its market, it is necessary to consider the preferences of consumers of this product. Therefore, the main purpose of this study was to rank and evaluate the effect of saffron attributes on the consumer utility of this product in Mashhad city. In this study, 3, 3 and 8 levels were considered for the trade name, packaging type and weight, respectively. In 2020, The data from 400 respondents were collected using a stratified sampling method (with proportionate allocation) from 13 districts of Mashhad-Iran. Using conjoint analysis, the results of the study showed that the weight of saffron marketed and the packaging type are important attributes influencing consumer preferences. In a more detailed analysis and taking into account the attribute levels, the results of the study confirmed that the highest utility values were found in saffron products with pocket packaging and weight of 4.608 gr. According to the study results, to design marketing strategies for different customer groups, saffron companies are recommended to pay more attention to consumer preferences in target markets.

Abstract In recent decades, due to the universal of organic agriculture around the world, the importance of soil, human and ecosystem health, production of organic and healthy food for the growing population and increasing the country's share in the global markets of organic products, the development of organic agriculture is widespread in Iran. Therefore, in this paper, an attempt has been made to study the tendency to adopt of saffron farmers for production of organic saffron Compared to the conventional product and the factors affecting it. The statistical population of the study is saffron farmers of Torbat-e Heydariyeh and Zaveh. Based on the table of Bartlett et al., the sample size was 380 people. The stratified random sampling method was used for selection of individuals in the community and to analyze the data, the Heckman Tobit two-step model was used. The data gathered from Torbat-e Heydariyeh region’s saffron farmers’ answers to the prepared questionnaire in 2019. Based on the results, the variables of experience, education, consumption of livestock manure and awareness index in the Probit model have a positive and significant effect and the variables of main activity and chemical fertilizer consumption have a negative and significant effect on adopting organic saffron production. The variable of negative attitude towards organic cultivation in the linear regression pattern was significant and positive. Therefore, a negative attitude leads to a tendency of farmers to receive more money for the cultivation of organic saffron. The variables of experience, education and main activity in the linear regression model have a positive and significant effect and the variables of income, farm area and farm age have a negative and significant effect on the willingness of farmers to earn money for organic saffron cultivation. Based on the results, it is suggested that saffron farmers be informed about the management of organic farms, the market for the selling organic products in different ways and prepare requirements for new saffron producers to take benefit from the experiences of skilled saffron producers.

Abstract Theories of international trade have emphasized specialization of countries and have considered this as a prerequisite to gain profit from trade. Iran has experienced a variety of forms of export of saffron as one of its important and valuable products to destination markets, which has made specialization in these markets doubtful. Therefore, this research study seeks to find out whether export of Iranian saffron in the world market and destination markets is moving towards specialization or not? In order to achieve this objective, the revealed comparative advantage index and the specialization pattern were investigated in the period of 2001-2018. The research findings have three main results. First, Iran's saffron exports have been associated with a de-specialization in the world market, and Spain, as Iran's most important export competitor, is on the paths to export specialization. Second, Iran has been specialized in saffron exports for the period 2001-2009 and has experienced a de-specialization in the 2010-2018 period. Third, Iran has been on the path of increasing specialization in only 15 percent of the destination markets (China, India, Hong Kong and Germany), and has a de-specialization in other markets. Because specialization in the destination market goes beyond identifying the demographic components of that market, it is suggested that long-term contracts be concluded with customers to adopt and implement production and marketing policies by further adapting the production and export of Iranian saffron to the culture of consumer markets.

Abstract Considering increasing competition in global markets, it is important to have a comprehensive understanding of target markets for market planning. One of the factors influencing international marketing strategies selection is assessment of the market structure in importing countries. Therefore, this study has pursued two main goals of determining the market structure of important saffron importing countries and investigating the effect of this variable on Iranian saffron to further the research literature on saffron export as one of the most important export products of the Iranian agricultural sector. To achieve these objectives, the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index has been used to calculate the market structure and the gravity model has been applied to determine this variable’s impact on Iran's exports over the period of 2001-2017. Market structure results showed that out of the 16 main countries importing saffron, no country had a fully competitive structure and there was a degree of monopoly in all markets. Also, the results of changes in the market structure of saffron importing countries during the period of 2001-2010 and 2011-2017 showed that the market structure of 7 countries Argentina, China, Germany, Japan, Spain, Sweden and the United Arab Emirates have become more monopolistic and 9 other countries have got more competitive structures. According to the results of the gravity model, the market structure of the importing countries has had a significant effect on Iranian saffron exports and the more competitive target markets have caused reduction of Iranian saffron exports. Hence, as saffron target markets become more competitive, it is suggested that exporters pay more attention to improving their competitive components in the markets, especially packaging. In accordance with world standards, packaging should be based on the quality of the product and provide complete information for customers.

Abstract The lack of a clear competitive strategy is one of the major problems of Iranian saffron companies to gain a competitive advantage in domestic and international markets. Therefore, the Picocrocin main purpose of this study is to rank the factors affecting competitive advantage in the domestic and international markets of Iranian saffron. Therefore, the importance of marketing resources and competitive strategies for one of the major producers and suppliers of saffron is investigated in this study considering market position theory and resource-based view. A pairwise comparison-based questionnaire is used to collect opinions of experts in the company. Using the analytic hierarchy process method, the results of the study showed that the differentiation strategy has the most effect in gaining competitive advantage. The results also indicate that particular attention must be paid to managerial and customer relationship capabilities in executing the differentiation strategy. Accordingly, improving financial conditions and understanding customers' needs and requirements are among the approaches that lead to development of key company capabilities and gaining competitive advantage in saffron markets.