Economics and Marketing
mohammad reza kohansal; Malihe sheibani
Abstract
In recent decades, due to the universal of organic agriculture around the world, the importance of soil, human and ecosystem health, production of organic and healthy food for the growing population and increasing the country's share in the global markets of organic products, the development of organic ...
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In recent decades, due to the universal of organic agriculture around the world, the importance of soil, human and ecosystem health, production of organic and healthy food for the growing population and increasing the country's share in the global markets of organic products, the development of organic agriculture is widespread in Iran. Therefore, in this paper, an attempt has been made to study the tendency to adopt of saffron farmers for production of organic saffron Compared to the conventional product and the factors affecting it. The statistical population of the study is saffron farmers of Torbat-e Heydariyeh and Zaveh. Based on the table of Bartlett et al., the sample size was 380 people. The stratified random sampling method was used for selection of individuals in the community and to analyze the data, the Heckman Tobit two-step model was used. The data gathered from Torbat-e Heydariyeh region’s saffron farmers’ answers to the prepared questionnaire in 2019. Based on the results, the variables of experience, education, consumption of livestock manure and awareness index in the Probit model have a positive and significant effect and the variables of main activity and chemical fertilizer consumption have a negative and significant effect on adopting organic saffron production. The variable of negative attitude towards organic cultivation in the linear regression pattern was significant and positive. Therefore, a negative attitude leads to a tendency of farmers to receive more money for the cultivation of organic saffron. The variables of experience, education and main activity in the linear regression model have a positive and significant effect and the variables of income, farm area and farm age have a negative and significant effect on the willingness of farmers to earn money for organic saffron cultivation. Based on the results, it is suggested that saffron farmers be informed about the management of organic farms, the market for the selling organic products in different ways and prepare requirements for new saffron producers to take benefit from the experiences of skilled saffron producers.
Economics and Marketing
mohammad reza kohansal; Amirhossein Tohidi
Abstract
In terms of quality and quantity, Iranian saffron has a considerable position at the international level and by taking advantage of the existing capacity; we can significantly increase the export earnings from it. On the other hand, sales forecasting based on time series analysis is s a very important ...
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In terms of quality and quantity, Iranian saffron has a considerable position at the international level and by taking advantage of the existing capacity; we can significantly increase the export earnings from it. On the other hand, sales forecasting based on time series analysis is s a very important element for the designing and implementing of marketing strategies in the international arena. However, the conventional approaches to forecasting, by ignoring the linear (or nonlinear) structure of data, do not provide accurate results. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to design a hybrid model consisting of two methods, artificial neural networks (ANN) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), in order to overcome the deficiencies and the use of the unique features of the each of these methods. Using the data related to the export of Iranian saffron during the period 1904-2013, the results of the study showed that the ARIMA–ANN hybrid model is stronger and better performance than ARIMA and ANN individual models in order to forecasting of Iranian saffron export. Therefore, given the considerable performance ARIMA–ANN hybrid model, the use of this model is recommended in setting strategies related to the export and also in the forecasting of the forecasting of time series variables.
Economics and Marketing
Mohammad Reza Kohansal; Amirhossein Tohidi
Abstract
This study estimate the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on saffron export demand. To this end, the pooled mean group (PMG) approach is used in order to implement the model of auto regressive distributed lag model (ARDL) and vector error correction model (VECM) in the context of panel data. The results ...
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This study estimate the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on saffron export demand. To this end, the pooled mean group (PMG) approach is used in order to implement the model of auto regressive distributed lag model (ARDL) and vector error correction model (VECM) in the context of panel data. The results showed that, relative price of exports has a negative and significant effect on Iran's saffron export demand. In the short- and long-term, the estimated price elasticity suggests that Iranian saffron export demand is price inelastic. The results indicate that real income effect of importing countries on the export of Iranian saffron is positive. In the short-term, income importing countries has no significantly effect on Iranian saffron export demand, while the long-term effect is significant at the 0.01 level. In both short- and long-term, the results indicate that exchange rate has a significant, positive effect on Iran's saffron export demand. The exchange rate elasticity of export demand for Iran's saffron is elastic in both short- and long-term. Therefore, the devaluation of the Rial, Iran's currency, led to a significant increase in the export of Iranian saffron. Also, the results showed in the short-term, the unpredictability of exchange rate fluctuations lead to increase the degree of risk aversion of exporters of Iranian saffron and so they prefer to deal with this issue by reducing their export. However, in the long-term, the income effect dominates the substitution effect, and exchange rate fluctuations has a positive effect on the export of Iranian saffron by creating profit opportunities.
