Other subject about saffron
Seeboyeh Aghamohamadi; abbas khashei; Ali Shahidi; Sayyed Reza Hashemi
Abstract
Climate changes and phenomena such as drought are effective in the yield of agricultural products. Replacing crisis management with risk management is one of the solutions for these phenomena. With risk assessment before crisis, the amount of damages will be reduced to the minimum amount. In this research, ...
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Climate changes and phenomena such as drought are effective in the yield of agricultural products. Replacing crisis management with risk management is one of the solutions for these phenomena. With risk assessment before crisis, the amount of damages will be reduced to the minimum amount. In this research, the risk assessment of drought by Monte Carlo method will be used in order to reduce the damages caused by drought as a natural and uncontrollable phenomenon on saffron product. The monthly Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) of drought and the monthly average temperature are calculated as independent variables in the yield distribution function. The relationship between independent variables (temperature and SPI) and dependent variable (saffron yield) is established using Artificial Neural Network (ANN). After that, 2000 random data from independent variables are generated using MATLAB and 2000 simulated yields generated by a trained artificial neural network. Then, the cumulative distribution of the simulated yields are determined and these yields are standardized in order to unification of the yield data of each city. The risk factor is calculated by choosing a reference station and using the cumulative distribution. The relative risks of the stations are considered after drawing the diagram of Yield-Risk standard factor. The results of the research show that most of the studied years are in normal range and the drought frequency in the four stations of Khorasan Jonoobi province is twice the stations in Khorasan Razavi. Furthermore, the artificial neural network with a correlation coefficient of 0.85 could predict the yield of the product very well. The similarity of the cumulative distribution diagram of the real yield with the cumulative distribution of the yields simulated by Monte Carlo indicates that the results are correct. At the end The results of this research show that Ghayen has the highest relative risk compared to the reference station (Torbat-e- Heydariyeh) and Nehbandan has the lowest one.
Economics and Marketing
Morteza Ashrafi; Mahmood Hoshmand; Mohammad Reza Lotfalipour; Kamran Davary
Abstract
Mashhad plain is one of plains of Khorasan Razavi province, which is one of the prohibited and critical prohibited plains. Due to unlicensed and unauthorized exploitation, the groundwater level has been gradually lowered and with a deficit of reservoir. Therefore, choosing the right strategies to reduce ...
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Mashhad plain is one of plains of Khorasan Razavi province, which is one of the prohibited and critical prohibited plains. Due to unlicensed and unauthorized exploitation, the groundwater level has been gradually lowered and with a deficit of reservoir. Therefore, choosing the right strategies to reduce water consumption in this plain is necessary. Various policies have been proposed to reduce agricultural water consumption by researchers, including the policy of expanding crops with low water requirements such as saffron. This policy may be a good solution to tackling the increasing use of water, but since different policies have different dimensions and effects, each policy must be explicitly examined for the impact of each policy, as well as the implications of each policy. In this regard, the consequences of the policy of extending the cultivation of saffron in three scenarios of allocating 5%, 10% and 15% of the total land area of the three counties located in Mashhad Plain was investigated using a positive mathematical programming model. The results showed that with the application of this policy, in all three cities, the income of farmers will increase, but water consumption will decrease only slightly in Binalud, and will not change in other two cities. Because with the expansion of saffron cultivation, instead of reducing the level of products with a high water requirement, the level of wheat and barley that requires less water than saffron is reduced, and therefore no reduction in water consumption. So, In the following, it was examined whether the policy would be to increase the cultivation of saffron, along with the absence of a decrease in total surface area of wheat and barley. It was observed that the application of this policy would reduce the consumption of water in all three cities and increase the income of farmers
Economics and Marketing
Bahareh Zandi Darehgharibi; Alireza Karbasi; Toktam Mohtashami
Abstract
Low efficiency of water use in agricultural sector, make in nessesery to do strategies for optimization of cropping pattern and therefore water consumption, especially in dried areas such as Khorasan Razavi province. Principal selecting of these strategies needs that the results may be evaluated using ...
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Low efficiency of water use in agricultural sector, make in nessesery to do strategies for optimization of cropping pattern and therefore water consumption, especially in dried areas such as Khorasan Razavi province. Principal selecting of these strategies needs that the results may be evaluated using relevant simulation models. Saffron can be the right product in terms of water saving. The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of saffron area expansion on the allocation of water resources and increase the income of farmers through the use of a model based on an extended Positive Mathematical Programming model that includes the possibility of future develop in cropping patterns, along with water allocation through a production function based on the amount of irrigation water. Required data are collected from 200 questionnaires completed by saffron producers in Torbat-e Heydarieh and Zaveh counties in year 2014. The data collected was analyzed using the software GAMS and imposing different senarios on three group of small, medium and large farms. Results of the increase in saffron cultivation shows change in cropping patterns from higher water demand products towards saffron. Positive results of this policy are increase in net income and decreasing water consumption in all three type of farms. Results of increase in available water resources that allow farmers to exploit part of the dedicated land to the cultivation of saffron, do not show uniformity results for different groups of farms. This implies that, in addition to pricing, other strategies such as investing in new technologies to improve water use and water resource management may improve economic statement and agricultural development, especially on small farms of this area.
Economics and Marketing
Hossein Mohammadzadeh; Alireza Karbasi
Abstract
Oil revenues play a major role in Iran's economy. In recent years, an average of about 60% of government revenues and 80% of Iran's export income have been from oil and gas. On the other hand, Iran as largest exporter of saffron has a significant part of the value of global exports of the product. Considering ...
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Oil revenues play a major role in Iran's economy. In recent years, an average of about 60% of government revenues and 80% of Iran's export income have been from oil and gas. On the other hand, Iran as largest exporter of saffron has a significant part of the value of global exports of the product. Considering that oil revenues over the past years has been Iran's main source of income, it seems essential to investigate the shock impact of oil revenues on the export of the product. The present study examined the effect of shock of oil revenues on the export of saffron in Iran. In this regard, the data time series for 1974- 2016 and Johansen Juselius and error correction model for Long-term and short-term relationships between the variables model were used. The results show that the real effective exchange rates in the long-term and short-term have a significant positive effect on the export of saffron in the country. Although index of ratio of domestic to world prices of saffron and saffron productivity were not statistically significant, their effect has positive and negative sign, respectively. Shock of oil revenues in the short term and the long term have a negative effect on the export of saffron as expected.
Economics and Marketing
Mohammad Aghapour Sabbaghi
Abstract
Analysis of factors affecting exports, especially in relation to new markets in agriculture, is one of the most important factors affecting the growth and development of exports of products such as saffron . The purpose of this study was to investigate the factors affecting the export of Iranian saffron ...
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Analysis of factors affecting exports, especially in relation to new markets in agriculture, is one of the most important factors affecting the growth and development of exports of products such as saffron . The purpose of this study was to investigate the factors affecting the export of Iranian saffron to the BRICS countries . For this purpose the panel for data approach for the period 2015-1990 has been used. The results of the randomized model estimation show that the gross domestic product of the BRICS countries, the real exchange rate and population have positive effects, and the export price has a negative effect on Iranian exports of saffron to the BRICS countries . Regarding the high level of per capita income in BRICS countries and its positive effect on the export rate of saffron, planning and policy making in order to strengthen relations with these countries is an important factor in the development of export of saffron crops. On the other hand, given the the low elasticity of imported saffron in these countries, it is suggested that measures be taken to upgrade and improve the packaging and processing of this product, which may lead to a relative increase in prices.
