Agriculture
Azam Rezaee; Morteza Yaqubi
Abstract
This study aimed to investigate the impact of climate change on saffron land rents in Khorasan Razavi province. To achieve this goal, relevant data and statistics were gathered from the National Meteorological Organization and the Agricultural Jihad Organization of Khorasan Razavi province between 2011-2020. ...
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This study aimed to investigate the impact of climate change on saffron land rents in Khorasan Razavi province. To achieve this goal, relevant data and statistics were gathered from the National Meteorological Organization and the Agricultural Jihad Organization of Khorasan Razavi province between 2011-2020. In doing so, panel data of the Ricardian technique was employed. The net present value of land rent was subsequently calculated. Considering three climate change scenarios, A1, B1, and AB (pessimistic, optimistic, and intermediate) till 2100 of IPCC, the ultimate effect of climate change on saffron land rents in Khorasan Razavi province was predicted. The results indicated that all of the cities in Khorasan Razavi province had positive saffron land rents throughout the study period. Torbat-e-Jam had the highest value of saffron land rent with 535,079,456 Tomans, while Kashmar and Roshtkhar had the lowest value with 160,079,456 Tomans. Moreover, the trend of changes in land rents is positive in some cities and negative in others. Bajestan, Torbat-e-Jam, Jooybar, and Khoshab have an increasing trend in the value of saffron land rent. In addition, the trend of land rent in Bakharz, Taybad, Bardaskan, Torbat Heydariyeh, Joghatai, Chenaran, Khalilabad, and Khaf is decreasing. Based on a fixed effects model, the average annual temperature, cumulative precipitation, and maximum average temperature have a positive and significant effect. In contrast, the interactive effect of temperature, precipitation and minimum average temperature negatively and significantly affect saffron land rents. Considering climate scenarios until 2025, land rent will decrease by 11.0% per hectare. Moreover, changes in land rent caused by temperature and precipitation climate scenarios until 2100 are estimated to be 326.0%. Considering the average land rent and the total saffron cultivation area in Khorasan Razavi province, we will have a decrease of 7.93 billion Tomans in land rent. Given the inevitability of climate change, evaluating its effects can be effective in managing this phenomenon.
Economics and Marketing
Esmaeil Fallahi; Fatemeh Mazraeh
Abstract
In order to get rid of single-product economy, trade of agricultural products is emphasized by the government. As Iran is the biggest producer and exporter of this strategic product in the world, the analysis of factors affecting export of Iran's saffron, can result in better policy making. Accordingly, ...
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In order to get rid of single-product economy, trade of agricultural products is emphasized by the government. As Iran is the biggest producer and exporter of this strategic product in the world, the analysis of factors affecting export of Iran's saffron, can result in better policy making. Accordingly, this study is aim to investigate the short-term and long-term effects of exchange rate volatility beside the other factors affecting the export of this product using panel data for Iran's major trading partners during 1992-2014. For this purpose and to avoid the limitation of symmetric approaches to calculate instability indices, the exchange rate volatility index was firstly calculated by using asymmetric method of Exponential Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (EGHARCH). Then, this index was used along with other variables to estimate of proposed model using the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) method. The results showed that although countries income and real exchange rate have positive and significant effects on saffron export, exchange rate volatility has a negative and significant effect on export of this product. Therefore, if the government’s goal is to support the export of this product, it is vital to achieve stability in exchange rate market. Moreover, the results of estimating error correction model indicate that the speed of disequilibrium adjustment towards long-run equilibrium relationships is substantial. Therefore, policy-making would be hopeful in the short-term.
