Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

• - - ¹
• Toktam Mohtashami ²
• Alireza Karbasi ³
• Fatemeh Rastegaripour ⁴

¹ MSc of Agricultural conomic, University of Torbat Heydarieh

² Assistant Professor, Department ofAgricultural Economic, University of Torbat Heydarieh

³ Full Professor, Department of Agricultural Economic, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad

⁴ Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Economic, University of Torbat Heydarieh

Abstract

Given the dynamic nature of saffron exports in the country, the analysis of export growth of this product based on the difference between export values ​​between two specific times, does not give a proper understanding of the stability of trade relations between Iran and exporting partners. Considering the importance of saffron exports, this study investigates the export relations of this product during the period 1997-2018 using the Kaplan Meyer survival function and estimating the semi-parametric Cox model. The results of Kaplan Meyer's analysis showed that only 20% of saffron export relations remained until the end of the period under review. Estimates obtained from the Cox model also showed that factors such as higher production, longer trade relations, and higher GDP of countries, decreased the risk of losing an export relationship by 0.006%, 0.33%, and 0.007%, respectively. Also, exports to Asian countries have a lower risk of loss than other countries. Given these results, boosting exports to trading partners with larger economies, and establishing marketing networks and product supply chains which ensures a more coordinated and sustainable supply of the product is important and recommended.

Keywords

• Survival function
• Cox model
• export risk
• agricultural exports

20.1001.1.23831529.1401.10.1.6.0

Main Subjects

• Economics and Marketing