Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1
- M.Sc. Student, Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
2
Associate Prof., Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
3
Associate Prof., Horticultural Sciences, Faculty of Agriculture, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
4
- Ph.D., Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
5
M.Sc., Water Resources Engineering and Management, Faculty of Agriculture, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
10.22048/jsat.2025.530222.1566
Abstract
Climate change is one of the key challenges affecting agricultural sustainability across many plains of Iran. In recent decades, decreased precipitation and rising temperatures in Iran’s arid and semi-arid climates—particularly in the Hamedan–Bahar plain—have led to reduced water resource efficiency and increased instability in agricultural production. Under these circumstances, identifying and evaluating climate-resilient cropping options is essential to enhance the adaptive capacity of regional agriculture. This study aims to assess the effectiveness of saffron cultivation as an economically viable and climate-compatible strategy in the Hamedan–Bahar plain. First, projected trends in temperature and precipitation were analyzed using climate scenario data for the synoptic station at Hamedan Airport. Subsequently, the yields of saffron and other common regional crops were simulated under these scenarios using a crop growth and yield simulation model. A mathematical programming model was then developed to maximize net agricultural profit and to examine the impact of changing crop yields on the cropping pattern under different climate scenarios. The results indicate that, under all three future climate scenarios, the average yield of major crops such as wheat, barley, and potato is expected to decline by approximately 2–4%. In contrast, saffron yield is projected to increase by an average of up to 3% across the scenarios. Furthermore, both the cultivated area and net profit from saffron exhibit an upward trend toward 2050. Notably, even under the pessimistic scenario, incorporating saffron into the cropping pattern leads to a net profit increase of more than 2% compared to the baseline. These findings underscore saffron’s potential as an economically attractive, low-risk, and climate-resilient crop, highlighting its role as an effective adaptation strategy to complement previously studied measures under future climate conditions.
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