The transition from raw material export to creating sustainable added value in strategic agricultural products is a cornerstone of economic resilience in developing countries. In the Iranian saffron industry, despite commanding over 90% of global production, a disproportionate share of the final value added accrues to international intermediaries. Previous studies have predominantly adopted a unidimensional or purely statistical approach to this challenge, failing to elucidate the hierarchical structure and causal relationships among the underlying barriers. To bridge this gap, this study aims to design a structural model of barriers preventing Iran from upgrading its position within the global saffron value chain. Utilizing the Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) approach and MICMAC analysis, insights from 12 experts from industry and academia were synthesized. The findings reveal a five-level hierarchical structure among the nine identified barriers. Contrary to common perception, ‘weak branding’ and ‘market fraud’ are not the root causes but rather the ultimate effects (‘dependent variables’) residing at Level 1 of the model. Conversely, ‘challenges in currency transfer’ and ‘instability of export regulations’ emerged with the highest driving power as the most fundamental barriers (Level 5, the roots). MICMAC analysis corroborated that these factors belong to the ‘independent/driving’ cluster, while variables like ‘exchange rate volatility’ and ‘saffron bulb smuggling’ act as key intermediaries, transmitting their effects up the hierarchy. The study concludes that any investment in branding will lack sustained effectiveness without first addressing these institutional and structural impediments (e.g., banking sanctions and unstable trade laws). The findings offer critical policy insights for strategic prioritization in the saffron sector.