Saffron cultivation, as a high-value crop with low water requirements, has the potential to improve economic security and the sustainability of rural livelihoods in Herat Province, Afghanistan. Despite extensive governmental and international support and the rapid expansion of saffron cultivation, empirical evidence on the factors influencing farmers’ willingness to expand saffron cultivation remains limited. This study aimed to identify and analyze the determinants of farmers’ willingness to expand saffron cultivation in Herat Province. A quantitative survey approach was employed in 2024, and the required data were collected through a researcher-designed questionnaire administered to 160 saffron farmers in the districts of Ghorian, Zendajan, and Injil, who were selected using stratified random sampling. An ordered logit model was applied to analyze the different levels of farmers’ willingness. Model validity was assessed using the parallel regression assumption test, goodness-of-fit measures, and information criteria. The results indicated that 59% of the farmers exhibited a moderate level of willingness to expand saffron cultivation. Furthermore, current cultivated area, family labor availability, saffron selling price, farming experience, educational level, and marital status had positive and statistically significant effects on the probability of farmers being classified into higher willingness categories. In contrast, the distance between the farm and the main road had a negative and significant effect on farmers’ willingness. Marginal effects analysis revealed that the probability of belonging to higher willingness categories increases as cultivated area expands, with a more pronounced increase occurring at approximately 7 hectares. This finding may indicate a strengthening of farmers’ incentives to transition from subsistence-oriented production toward more commercially oriented saffron cultivation at larger farm sizes. The findings underscore the need for policymakers to shift from purely price-based support toward structural interventions. Improving transportation infrastructure, enhancing technical training for young and educated farmers and promoting land consolidation through cooperatives may increase farmers’ willingness and facilitate the sustainable expansion of saffron cultivation in Herat Province.