با همکاری انجمن علمی گیاهان دارویی ایران

تعیین الگوی کشت بهینه با رویکرد توسعه زعفران و به‌کارگیری روش‌های نوین آبیاری در شرایط کم‌آبی

نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.

چکیده
منابع آب به‌عنوان یکی از مهم‌ترین نهاده‌های تولید کشاورزی، در سال‌های اخیر به‌دلیل تغییر اقلیم و بهره‌برداری بی‌رویه با محدودیت‌هایی روبه‌رو شده‌اند. این مسئله ضرورت بهینه‌سازی الگوی کشت و ارتقای بهره‌وری آب را نشان می‌دهد. هدف این مطالعه، بررسی اثر تغییر روش‌های آبیاری و سناریوهای کاهش میزان آب آبیاری بر عملکرد و سود خالص محصولات الگوی کشت دشت همدان - بهار، با تأکید بر زعفران به‌عنوان محصولی راهبردی در افزایش تاب‌آوری کشاورزی است. داده‌های موردنیاز از طریق پرسشنامه و مصاحبه میدانی با کشاورزان منطقه در سال زراعی 1404-1403 گردآوری شد. برای شبیه‌سازی عملکرد محصولات، سه روش آبیاری سطحی، بارانی و قطره‌ای تحت سناریوهای کاهش آبیاری (۵، ۸ و ۱۰ درصد) بررسی گردید. نتایج شبیه‌سازی عملکرد محصولات به‌عنوان ورودی مدل برنامه‌ریزی ریاضی اثباتی استفاده شد تا اثر تغییرات عملکرد بر سود خالص کل بخش کشاورزی ارزیابی شود. یافته‌ها نشان داد که عملکرد محصولات در سه روش آبیاری متفاوت بوده و در سناریوی ۱۰ درصد کاهش آبیاری، اغلب محصولات با افت عملکرد مواجه شدند. ازاین‌رو، زعفران به‌دلیل نیاز آبی پایین به الگوی کشت افزوده شد. مقایسه روش‌های آبیاری نشان داد که سامانه قطره‌ای در تمامی سناریوها نسبت به آبیاری سطحی و بارانی برتری داشته و توانست افت عملکرد و سود را به‌طور قابل‌توجهی جبران کند. نتایج اقتصادی نیز بیانگر آن بود که توسعه سطح زیرکشت زعفران در کنار استفاده از روش‌های نوین آبیاری، موجب جبران کاهش سود ناشی از کم‌آبی و حتی افزایش سود خالص کشاورزی در برخی سناریوها نسبت به وضعیت پایه شد. بنابراین، ترکیب توسعه کشت زعفران و به‌کارگیری آبیاری قطره‌ای می‌تواند به‌عنوان راهبردی پایدار و اقتصادی برای مدیریت منابع آب و ارتقای تاب‌آوری کشاورزی دشت همدان - بهار توصیه شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Determining the Optimal Cropping Pattern with an Approach to Saffron Development and the Utilization of Modern Irrigation Methods under Water Scarcity

نویسندگان English

Vahid Kalantar 1
Seyed Habibollah Mosavi 2
Hamed Najafi Alamdarlo 2
1 M.Sc. Student, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده English

Water resources, as one of the most critical inputs in agricultural production, have faced increasing constraints in recent years due to climate change and unsustainable exploitation. This situation underscores the need to optimize cropping patterns and enhance water productivity. The objective of this study is to examine the effects of changes in irrigation methods and water-reduction scenarios on crop yield and net profit within the cropping pattern of the Hamadan–Bahar Plain, with particular emphasis on saffron, a strategic crop for strengthening agricultural resilience. During the 2023–2024 agricultural year, crop yield simulations were conducted under three irrigation methods (surface, sprinkler, and drip irrigation) combined with deficit irrigation scenarios of 5%, 8%, and 10%. The simulated yield results were subsequently incorporated as inputs into a Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) model to assess the impacts of yield changes on total agricultural net profit. The findings indicate that crop yields varied significantly across the three irrigation methods, and under the 10% deficit irrigation scenario, most crops experienced noticeable yield reductions. Consequently, saffron was introduced into the cropping pattern due to its low water requirement and high economic potential. A comparative assessment of irrigation methods revealed that drip irrigation consistently outperformed surface and sprinkler systems across all scenarios, effectively compensating for yield losses and mitigating reductions in farm income. Economic results further demonstrated that expanding saffron cultivation, alongside the adoption of modern irrigation technologies, not only offset the profit losses associated with water scarcity but, in some scenarios, increased net agricultural income relative to the baseline condition. Therefore, integrating saffron cultivation development with drip irrigation systems can be recommended as a sustainable and economically viable strategy for water resource management and for enhancing the resilience of agriculture in the Hamadan–Bahar Plain.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Adaptation strategies
Cropping pattern change
Economic resilience
Hamedan&‌‌‌‌‌‌‌ndash
Bahar plain
Sustainable agriculture
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