Water resources, as one of the most important inputs in agricultural production, have in recent years faced increasing constraints due to climate change and excessive exploitation. This highlights the necessity of optimizing cropping patterns and improving water productivity. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of changing irrigation methods and irrigation reduction scenarios on crop yield and net profit within the cropping pattern of the Hamedan–Bahar plain, with an emphasis on saffron as a strategic crop for enhancing agricultural resilience. The required data for this analysis were collected through questionnaires and field interviews with farmers in the Hamedan–Bahar plain during the 2023–2024 cropping year. To simulate crop yields, three irrigation methods surface, sprinkler, and drip were applied under irrigation reduction scenarios (5%, 8%, and 10%). The results of yield simulations were used as inputs for the Positive Mathematical Programming model to assess the impact of yield changes on the overall net profit of the region’s agricultural sector. The findings revealed that crop yields varied across the three irrigation methods, and under the 10% reduction scenario, most crops experienced yield declines. Therefore, saffron was incorporated into the regional cropping pattern due to its low water requirement. A comparison of irrigation methods indicated that the drip system outperformed surface and sprinkler irrigation across all scenarios and was able to significantly offset yield and profit losses. The economic simulation results showed that expanding saffron cultivation alongside the use of different irrigation methods not only compensated for profit losses caused by water scarcity but also increased the net profit of agriculture in some scenarios compared to the baseline. Therefore, integrating saffron expansion into the cropping pattern together with the adoption of drip irrigation can be recommended as a sustainable and economically viable strategy for water resource management and enhancing agricultural resilience in the Hamedan–Bahar plain.