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بررسی آثار تغییرات اقلیم بر رانت زمین‌های کشاورزی زعفران در استان خراسان رضوی

نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده مدیریت کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان

2 - استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربت حیدریه، تربت حیدریه و پژوهشگر پژوهشکده زعفران دانشگاه تربت حیدریه

چکیده

تحقیق حاضر با هدف بررسی اثرات تغییرات اقلیم بر رانت زمین‌های کشاورزی زعفران در استان خراسان رضوی انجام شد. بر این اساس آمار و اطلاعات مورد نیاز از سازمان هواشناسی کل کشور و جهاد کشاورزی استان خراسان رضوی در دوره زمانی 99-1390 جمع­آوری شد. به منظور تحقق اهداف تحقیق، از روش ریکاردین و تکنیک داده­های تلفیقی استفاده شد. در نهایت ارزش حال رانت محاسبه گردید. جهت پیش‌بینی اثر نهایی تغییراقلیم بر رانت زعفران در استان خراسان رضوی از سه سناریوی تغییر اقلیمA1، B1 و AB(بدبینانه، خوش­بینانه و میانی) هیأت بین الدولی تغییر اقلیم تا افق 2100 استفاده شد. بر اساس نتایج، همه شهرستان­های استان خراسان رضوی در دوره مورد بررسی دارای رانت مثبت زعفران هستند. تربت جام با 5350794560 ریال و کاشمر و رشتخوار با 1600794560 ریال به ترتیب بیشترین و کمترین ارزش حال رانت زعفران را دارند. همچنین روند تغییرات رانت در برخی شهرستان­ها مثبت و در برخی شهرستان­ها منفی است. شهرستان­های بجستان، تربت جام، جوین و خوشاب دارای روند افزایشی ارزش رانت هستند. به علاوه، روند رانت شهرستان­های باخرز، تایباد، بردسکن، تربت حیدریه، جغتای، چناران، خلیل آباد و خواف کاهشی است. بر اساس نتایج مدل اثرات ثابت، متوسط دمای سالیانه و متوسط بیشینه دما اثر مثبت و معنادار در سطح احتمال یک درصد، بارش تجمعی اثر مثبت و معنادار در سطح احتمال پنج درصد و اثر متقابل دما و بارش و متوسط کمینه دما اثر منفی و معنادار در سطح احتمال یک درصد بر رانت زعفران در استان خراسان رضوی دارند. با توجه به سناریوهای اقلیمی تا سال 2025، رانت 11/0 درصد در هر هکتار کاهش خواهد یافت. همچنین تا سال 2100، تغییرات رانت ناشی از سناریوهای اقلیمی دما و بارش 326/0 درصد است. با در نظرگرفتن رانت میانگین و سطح زیرکشت کل استان خراسان رضوی در زعفران، 937 میلیارد ریال کاهش در رانت به وجود خواهد آمد. لذا با توجه به اجتناب­ناپذیر بودن تغییرات اقلیم، ارزیابی اثرات آن می­تواند در مدیریت این پدیده مؤثر باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigation of The Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Saffron Land Rent in Khorasan Razavi Province

نویسندگان [English]

  • Azam Rezaee 1
  • Morteza Yaqubi 2

1 Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural management, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources

2 - Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Torbat Heydarieh, Torbat Heydarieh and Saffron Institute, University of Torbat Heydarieh, Torbat Heydarieh, Iran

چکیده [English]

This study aimed to investigate the impact of climate change on saffron land rents in Khorasan Razavi province. To achieve this goal, relevant data and statistics were gathered from the National Meteorological Organization and the Agricultural Jihad Organization of Khorasan Razavi province between 2011-2020. In doing so, panel data of the Ricardian technique was employed. The net present value of land rent was subsequently calculated. Considering three climate change scenarios, A1, B1, and AB (pessimistic, optimistic, and intermediate) till 2100 of IPCC, the ultimate effect of climate change on saffron land rents in Khorasan Razavi province was predicted. The results indicated that all of the cities in Khorasan Razavi province had positive saffron land rents throughout the study period. Torbat-e-Jam had the highest value of saffron land rent with 535,079,456 Tomans, while Kashmar and Roshtkhar had the lowest value with 160,079,456 Tomans. Moreover, the trend of changes in land rents is positive in some cities and negative in others. Bajestan, Torbat-e-Jam, Jooybar, and Khoshab have an increasing trend in the value of saffron land rent. In addition, the trend of land rent in Bakharz, Taybad, Bardaskan, Torbat Heydariyeh, Joghatai, Chenaran, Khalilabad, and Khaf is decreasing. Based on a fixed effects model, the average annual temperature, cumulative precipitation, and maximum average temperature have a positive and significant effect. In contrast, the interactive effect of temperature, precipitation and minimum average temperature negatively and significantly affect saffron land rents. Considering climate scenarios until 2025, land rent will decrease by 11.0% per hectare. Moreover, changes in land rent caused by temperature and precipitation climate scenarios until 2100 are estimated to be 326.0%. Considering the average land rent and the total saffron cultivation area in Khorasan Razavi province, we will have a decrease of 7.93 billion Tomans in land rent. Given the inevitability of climate change, evaluating its effects can be effective in managing this phenomenon.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Keywords: Climate Change scenarios
  • Fixed effect model
  • Panel data
  • Ricardian approach
  • Saffron
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زراعت و فناوری زعفران
دوره 11، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 39
تیر 1402
صفحه 209-224
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هم رسانی
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