پایداری صادرات زعفران ایران در بازارهای جهانی و عوامل مؤثر بر آن

نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش‌آموخته کارشناسی‌ارشد اقتصاد‌کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربت‌حیدریه

2 استادیار، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربت حیدریه

3 استاد، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

10.22048/jsat.2022.105114.1270

چکیده

با در نظر گرفتن ماهیت پویای موجود در صادرات زعفران کشور، تحلیل در خصوص رشد صادرات این محصول بر پایه اختلاف بین ارزش‌های صادرات بین دو زمان مشخص، درک درستی از ثبات در روابط تجاری میان ایران و کشورهای طرف صادرات را نمی­دهد. با توجه به اهمیت صادرات زعفران، این مطالعه به بررسی روابط صادراتی این محصول طی دوره زمانی 97-1376 با بهره‌گیری از تابع بقای کاپلان مایر و برآورد مدل کاکس نیمه پارامتریک پرداخته است. نتایج تحلیل کاپلان مایر نشان داد که تنها 20% از روابط صادراتی زعفران تا پایان دوره موردبررسی باقی ­مانده است. برآوردهای به‌دست‌آمده از مدل کاکس نیز نشان داد که عواملی چون تولید بالاتر، وجود روابط تجاری باسابقه تر، و تولید ناخالص داخلی بالاتر کشورهای واردکننده ریسک از دست رفت یک رابطه صادراتی را به ترتیب 006/0، 33/0 و 007/0 درصد کاهش داده و لذا باعث افزایش طول مدت صادرات می­شود. همچنین صادرات با کشورهای آسیایی از ریسک از دست رفت کمتری نسبت به سایر کشورها برخوردار است. با توجه به این نتایج، تقویت صادرات به طرف­های تجاری با اقتصاد بزرگ­تر، و ایجاد شبکه­های بازاریابی و زنجیره عرضه محصول با کشورهای پرسابقه در خرید زعفران که عرضه هماهنگ و پایدارتر محصول را تضمین می­نماید، اهمیت داشته و پیشنهاد می­شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Survival of Iran's Saffron Export on Global Markets and Effective Factors on it

نویسندگان [English]

  • - - 1
  • Toktam Mohtashami 2
  • Alireza Karbasi 3
  • Fatemeh Rastegaripour 2
1 MSc of Agricultural conomic, University of Torbat Heydarieh
2 Assistant Professor, Department ofAgricultural Economic, University of Torbat Heydarieh
3 Full Professor, Department of Agricultural Economic, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
چکیده [English]

Given the dynamic nature of saffron exports in the country, the analysis of export growth of this product based on the difference between export values ​​between two specific times, does not give a proper understanding of the stability of trade relations between Iran and exporting partners. Considering the importance of saffron exports, this study investigates the export relations of this product during the period 1997-2018 using the Kaplan Meyer survival function and estimating the semi-parametric Cox model. The results of Kaplan Meyer's analysis showed that only 20% of saffron export relations remained until the end of the period under review. Estimates obtained from the Cox model also showed that factors such as higher production, longer trade relations, and higher GDP of countries, decreased the risk of losing an export relationship by 0.006%, 0.33%, and 0.007%, respectively. Also, exports to Asian countries have a lower risk of loss than other countries. Given these results, boosting exports to trading partners with larger economies, and establishing marketing networks and product supply chains which ensures a more coordinated and sustainable supply of the product is important and recommended.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • survival function
  • Cox model
  • export risk
  • Agricultural Exports
 
Aghapour Sabbaghi, M. 2019. Investigating the factors affecting the export of Iranian saffron to BRICS countries (Panel data approach). Journal of Saffron Agronomy and Technology 7 (3): 411-420.
Aminizadeh, M., Rafiee, H., Riahi, A., and Mehrparvar Hosseini, E. 2014. Pattern of competitiveness of pistachios world premier exporters in Iran's importers market. Agricultural Economics 8 (2): 41-68.
Besedes, T., and Prusa, T.J. 2006. Product differentiation and duration of U.S. import trade?. Journal of International Economics 70 (2): 339-358.
Besades, T., and Blyde, J. 2010. What drives export survival? An analysis of export duration in latin America. Inter-American Development Bank, Mimeo: 1-43
Biria, S., and Jabal Ameli, F. 2006. Factors affecting export of pistachio, saffron and dates in the basket of non-oil exports of Iran (1991-2001). Quarterly Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development 54: 85-102.
Brenton, P., Saborowski, C., and Uexkull, E. v. 2011. What explains the low survival rate of developing country export flows?. The World Bank Economic Review 24 (3): 474-499.
Carrere, C., and Strauss-kahn, V. 2017. Export survival and the dynamics of experience. Review of World Economics 153 (3): 300-320.
Chatterjee, D., and Chatterjee, A. 2010. Binary logistic regression using survival analysis. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1672759
Daneshvar, M., Karbasi, V., and Sarvari, A. 2005. Globalization and its effects on exports of saffron. Articles Collections Second National Conference of Saffron. Mashhad, Iran.
Dourandish, A., Aminizadeh, M., Riahi, A., and Mehrparvar Hosseini, E. 2019. Assessing the role of trade sanctions and global economic crisis on Iran’s saffron exports. Journal of Saffron Agronomy and Technology 6 (4): 499-511.
Dreyer, H., and Anders, S. 2014. Experience matters - trade duration and survival of coffee exports. The EAAE 2014 Congress ‘Agri-food and rural Innovations for Healthier Societies. 2-16.
Fallahi, E., and Mazraeh, F. 2018. Economic analysis of short-term and long-term effects of exchange rate uncertainty on the export of Iranian saffron. Journal of Saffron Agronomy and Technology 6 (3): 367-381.
FAO, FAO Stat. 2013. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations database.http://faostat.fao.org/.
Goodarzi, J. 2004. Effect of effective exchange rate on non-oil exports (case study of carpet, pistachio, dates, raisins, saffron and caviar). Master's Degree Course, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Bu-Ali Sina University.
Hess, W., and Persson, M. 2011. Exploring the duration of EU imports. Review of World Economics 147 (4): 665-692.
Hendizadeh, H., Karbasi, A., Mohtashami, T., and Sahabi, H. 2019. Ranking of socio-economic variables affecting the bilateral trade of saffron in Iran and business partners. Journal of saffron Research 7 (1): 55-67.
Hosmer, D.W., and Lemeshow, S. 2003. Applied Survival Analysis: Regression Modeling of Time to Event Data. Wiley. New York.
 IMF. 2013. International Monetary Fund. International Financial Statistics (IFS), Internet:http://www.imf.org/ external/data.htm
Islamic Republic of Iran Customs. 2015. Foreign Trade Statistics of Iran. Publications of the Customs Office of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Tehran
International Trade Center. 2019. https://www.trademap.org/Index.aspx
Izadi, M. 2008. Estimation of supply function of Iran saffron export during the period (1979-2004) vector auto regression approach. Master's Degree Course, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics. University of Isfahan.
Karbasi, A., and Akbarzadeh, J. 2008. Estimation of supply and demand function of Iran saffron export with simultaneous equation system. Quarterly Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development 62: 33-52.
Khalighi, L., and ShokatFadaie, M. 2015. A study on the effects of exchange rate and foreign policies on Iranians dates export. Journal of the Saudi Society of Agricultural Sciences 3: 97-112.
Kohansal, M., and Tohidi, A. 2015. Experimental study of the impact of foreign exchange rate fluctuations on Iran's saffron export demand: A dynamic pooled mean group (PMG) approach. Journal of Saffron Agronomy and Technology 3 (1): 34-42.
Koochakzadeh, S., and Karbasi, A. 2015. Study of the effective factors on the commerce of Iranian saffron. Journal of Saffron Agronomy and Technology 3 (3): 217-227.
Ministry of Agriculture-Jihad. 2013. The area under cultivation and the amount of garden products. Agriculture Statistics, http://www.maj.ir.
Nitsch, V. 2009. Die another day: Duration in German import trade. CESifo Working Paper Series, Forthcoming in Review of World Economics 145 (1): 133-154.
Obashi, A. 2010. Stability of International Production Networks: Is East Asia Special?. International Journal of Business and Development Studies 2 (1): 63-94.
Paseban, F. 2006. Factors Affecting Iran's Saffron Export. Economics Quarterly 2: 1-15.
Rezapoor, S., and Mortazavi, S.A. 2011. Effects of globalization on supply and demand export saffron. Journal of Economics and Agricultural 4 (3): 153-169.
Rudi, J., Grant, J., and Peterson, E.B. 2012. Survival of the fittest: Explaining export duration and export failure in the U.S. fresh fruit and vegetable market. Selected Paper at the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association’s (AAEA) 2012 Annual Meeting, Seattle Washington, 12-14 August.
Tajiani, H., and Kupahi, M. 2005. Estimation of supply and demand functions of Iranian saffron export. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Science 36 (3): 573-580.