شناخت اداراک و سازگاری زعفران کاران دشت کاشمر با تغییرات اقلیمی

نوع مقاله: مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسنده

استادیار گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه بیرجند

10.22048/jsat.2017.78808.1218

چکیده

تغییرات اقلیمی تأثیرات جدی بر جوامع و معیشت آنان در مناطق خشک دارد. بخش کشاورزی به دلیل تعاملات گسترده­ای که با محیط دارد، بیش­ترین تأثیر را از تغییرات آب و هوایی می‌پذیرد. تخریب محیط زیست و کاهش عملکرد محصول زعفران و تضعیف اقتصاد خانوار از جمله پیامدهای تغییرات آب و هوایی در دشت کاشمر می­باشد. این مطالعه به منظور سنجش ادراک زعفران­کاران دشت کاشمر از تغییرات اقلیمی و ظرفیت سازگاری آنان با این پدیده انجام گرفته است. مطالعه حاضر  به واکاوی ادراکات و سازگاری زعفران­کاران با تغییرات آب و هوا به منظور افزایش استراتژِی ها در قبال مقابله با چالش­های تغییر آب و هوا در دشت کاشمر انجام گرفته است. روش کار توصیفی – تحلیلی با رویکرد پیمایشی می­باشد، جامعة آماری پژوهش با استفاده از روش نمونه­گیری کوکران و حجم نمونه 390 خانوار محاسبه شد. برای واکاوی ادراک زعفران­کاران و استراتژی­های سازگاری از مدل­های آماری از جمله رگرسیون لجستیک استفاده گردید. تجزیه و تحلیل ادراک زعفران­کاران نسبت به تغییر آب و هوا نشان می­دهد که افزایش دما و کاهش بارندگی دهه اخیر  در دشت کاشمر شدت گرفته است. نتایج مدل آماری لجستیک نشان می­دهد که تنوع محصول، تغییر در محصولات زراعی، پیدا  کردن شغل در خارج از مزرعه ، تغییر مساحت زمین، تغییر تاریخ کاشت روش­های سازگاری زعفران کاران در منطقه می­باشد. با توجه به اینکه تعداد زیادی از زعفران­کاران به درک تغییرات اقلیمی رسیده­اند و فعالیت­های کشاورزی خود را بر مبنای این تغییرات تنظیم می­کنند، لازم است دولت نیز شرایط سازگاری زعفران­کاران را با تغییرات اقلیمی تسهیل نماید.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Understanding perceptual and adaptation to climate change by the saffron farmers Of the Kashmar plain

نویسنده [English]

  • morteza esmailnejad
birjand
چکیده [English]

Climate change has serious impacts on communities and livelihoods in dry areas. The agricultural sector accepts the greatest impact from climate change due to its extensive interactions with the environment. Environmental degradation and reduced yield of saffron and weakening of the household economy are among the consequences of climate change in the Kashmar plain. This study was carried out in order to evaluate the perception of saffron in the Kashmar plain from climate change and its capacity to adapt to this phenomenon. The present study was conducted to examine the perceptions and adaptation of saffron to climate change in order to expand the strategies for confronting the climate change challenges in the Kashmar plain. The method of this study is descriptive-analytic. The population of the study was calculated using Cochran's sampling method and a sample size of 390 households was chosen. Statistical models such as logistic regression were used to examine saffron perception and compatibility strategies. The analysis of saffron perceptions of climate change shows that the increase in temperature and the decrease in rainfall during the last decade in the Kashmar plain has been ongoing. The results of the logistic statistical model indicated that product diversity, change in crops, finding a job outside the farm, changing the amount of land, changing the planting date of saffron were adaptation methods used in the region. Given that many saffron growers have come to understand climate change and adjust their farming activities based on these changes, the government should facilitate the adaptation of saffron to climate change.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • adaptation
  • Climate change
  • Kashmar plain
  • Saffron
  • logistic regression

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