کاربرد پروفیل ریسک در مدیریت ریسک محصول زعفران

نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 پژوهشگر پژوهشکده زعفران و مدرس مدعو گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربت حیدریه

2 مربی گروه صنایع، دانشکده فنی و مهندسی، دانشگاه تربت‌حیدریه

3 عضو هیات علمی گروه مهندسی صنایع، دانشگاه صنعتی قوچان

10.22048/jsat.2018.92906.1249

چکیده

کشاورزی بدلیل وابستگی به متغیرهای بیولوژیکی و شرایط اقلیمی دارای شرایط ویژه ایی است. رفتار این متغیرها تاثیر چشمگیری بر روی عملکرد محصولات کشاورزی و درآمد کشاورز دارد. بنابراین در این بخش تشخیص و ارزیابی ریسک ها برای تصمیم گیری صحیح و دستیابی به نتایج درست بسیار حائز اهمیت است. تربت حیدریه مهمترین مرکز کشت و تولید زعفران در خراسان و ایران و رتبه اول تولید زعفران در دنیا است. در این مطالعه کاربرد پروفیل ریسک برای مدیریت ریسک محصول زعفران مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. برای دست-یابی به پروفیل ریسک از داده‌های مربوط به 67 زعفران‌کار شهرستان تربت حیدریه در سال 1395 بهره گرفته شد. برای ارزیابی خسارت‌ هریک از ریسک‌ها از دو معیار فراوانی وقوع ریسک و میزان اثر ریسک و سرانجام ماتریس ریسک استفاده شده است. نتایج نشان داد که بزرگترین ناحیه ‌ی ریسک که دارای بیشترین احتمال وقوع و شدت اثر می‌باشد شامل تمام ابعاد گروه ریسک آفات، بیماریها و علف های هرز ( انواع علف های هرز، آفات میکرو( قارچ و باکتری) و آفات ماکرو( موش، مورچه، کنه و چرای دام))، سه مورد از گروه ریسک اقتصادی (واسطه و دلال، نوسانات بازار و عدم نقدینگی کشاورزان) دو مورد از ریسک اقلیمی (خشکسالی و سرمازدگی و یخبندان) و یک مورد از ریسک خسارت (افت عملکرد به دلیل عمر بالای مزرعه) است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

.Application of Risk Profile in Saffron Risk Management

نویسندگان [English]

  • Elnaz Nejatianpour 1
  • mohammad ghodoosi 2
  • javad hasanpour 3
1 Researcher of Saffron Institute, Invitee Lecturer in Agricultural Economics at University of Torbat Heydarieh
2 Lecturer, Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Technical and Engineering, University of Torbat Heydarieh
3 Lecturer, Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Technical and Engineering, Quchan University of Technology
چکیده [English]

Agriculture is a unique sector because of its dependence on the climate and biological variables. Therefore, in agriculture it is vital to identify and evaluate risks to be sure that decisions made on the farm will bring positive results. Torbat-e-Heydarieh is the most important center in saffron cultivation and production in Khorasan Razavi province and Iran. This city is famous for its Saffron lands. It has the first rank in the world for producing Saffron . So, in this paper, we employed risk profile analysis to saffron risk management. By using previous literatures, all of the risks of agricultural sector are identified and classified in nine categories. The information was collected from the university elite and Saffron union members. To design the risk profile, we used data from 67 saffron producers of Torbat Heydariyeh in 1395. For evaluating of losses related to each risk component, two indexes of frequency and severity of risk were calculated and based on that risk matrix were created. Results showed that the greatest area of risk is included all of the risk of pests, diseases and weeds (Different types of weeds, Micro pests (Fungi and bacteria), Macro pests( Mice, ant, insect, Grazing livestock)), economic risk (Brokers, market fluctuations, lack of liquidity of farmers), Climate risk (drought, frost and freeze) and damage risk (Reduce yield due to farm life).

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Saffron
  • Risk Matrix
  • Agricultural Risk
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