نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی

2 استاد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه فردوسی

چکیده

درآمدهای نفتی نقش مهمی در اقتصاد ایران دارد. درطی سال­های گذشته، به­طور متوسط 60% درآمد دولت و 80% درآمد صادرات ایران از نفت­وگاز بوده است. از دیگرسوی ایران به­عنوان بزرگ­ترین صادرکننده زعفران بخش قابل توجهی از ارزش صادراتی جهانی این محصول را به خود اختصاص داده است. با توجه به تأثیر­گذاری درآمدهای نفتی در اقتصاد ایران به عنوان مهم­ترین منبع درآمدی، بررسی تأثیر شوک حاصل از نوسانات این درآمدها بر اقتصاد ایران ضروری به­نظر می‌رسد. از این رو مطالعه حاضر به بررسی اثر شوک درآمدهای نفتی بر صادرات زعفران ایران پرداخته است. در این راستا از داده­های سری­زمانی دوره 95-1354 و الگوهای جوهانسون- جوسیلیوس و تصحیح خطا برای برآورد روابط بلندمدت و کوتاه­مدت بین متغیرهای الگو استفاده شده است. یافته­های پژوهش بیان­گر این است که نرخ ارز مؤثر واقعی در بلندمدت و کوتاه­مدت تأثیر معنی­دار مثبت بر صادرات زعفران درکشور دارد. شاخص قیمت­داخلی زعفران به قیمت جهانی آن و بهره­وری زعفران نیز با این­که اثرشان از لحاظ آماری معنی­دار نیست ولی تأثیر آن از لحاظ علامت به­ترتیب منفی و مثبت است. شوک درآمدهای نفتی نیز طبق انتظار درکوتاه­مدت و بلندمدت دارای اثر منفی بر صادرات زعفران بوده است. 

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Shock Effect of Oil Revenues on the Export of Iran Saffron

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hossein Mohammadzadeh 1
  • Alireza Karbasi 2

1 Ph. D Student of agriculture economic, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad

2 Professor Economics of agriculture economic, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad

چکیده [English]

Oil revenues play a major role in Iran's economy. In recent years, an average of about 60% of government revenues and 80% of Iran's export income have been from oil and gas. On the other hand, Iran as largest exporter of saffron has a significant part of the value of global exports of the product. Considering that oil revenues over the past years has been Iran's main source of income, it seems essential to investigate the shock impact of oil revenues on the export of the product. The present study examined the effect of shock of oil revenues on the export of saffron in Iran. In this regard, the data time series for 1974- 2016 and Johansen Juselius and error correction model for Long-term and short-term relationships between the variables model were used. The results show that the real effective exchange rates in the long-term and short-term have a significant positive effect on the export of saffron in the country. Although index of ratio of domestic to world prices of saffron and saffron productivity were not statistically significant, their effect has positive and negative sign, respectively. Shock of oil revenues in the short term and the long term have a negative effect on the export of saffron as expected.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Error Correction Model
  • oil revenues
  • Shock
  • Saffron
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