تحلیل انتقال قیمت در بازار زعفران مورد مطالعه: استان‌های خراسان رضوی، شمالی و جنوبی

نوع مقاله: مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تبریز

2 دانش آموخته‌ی رشته مدیریت کشاورزی ، دانشگاه تبریز-مدرس دانشگاه پیام نور

چکیده

انتقال نامتقارن قیمت به‌عنوان یکی از مصادیق نارسایی بازار مطرح می‌باشد که بر رفاه مصرف‌کنندگان اثر می‌گذارد. به همین دلیل، تحلیل انتقال قیمت در بازارهای کشاورزی از اهمیت خاصی برخوردار می‌باشد. زعفران به‌عنوان طلای سرخ ایران یکی از مهم‌ترین محصولات تولیدی کشاورزی کشور می‌باشد. در این بین استان‌های خراسان رضوی، جنوبی و شمالی از عمده‌ترین استان‌های تولیدکننده زعفران در کشور می‌باشند.‌ هدف از مطالعه حاضر بررسی نحوه انتقال قیمت محصول زعفران در بین استان‌های موردنظر می‌باشد. بدین منظور ابتدا وجود رابطه بلندمدت بین متغیرهای مورد مطالعه با استفاده از آزمون‌های همگرایی یوهانسون و انگل و گرنجر بر پایه داده‌های ماهانه 1390-1385 مستخرج از دفتر آمار بانک مرکزی مورد آزمون قرار گرفت. سپس جهت نحوه انتقال (متقارن یا نامتقارن) قیمت از روش‌های همگرایی آستانه‌ای استفاده شد. نتایج آزمون‌ همگرایی انگل و گرجر و آزمون همگرایی یوهانسون وجود رابطه بلندمدت را در بین استان‌های موردنظر تأیید نمود. یافته‌های این مطالعه نشان داد انتقال قیمت زعفران در بلندمدت بین استان‌های خراسان رضوی، جنوبی و شمالی متقارن است. همچنین با به‌کارگیری مدل‌های تصحیح خطا بر پایه تکنیک‌های تصحیح خطای آستانه‌ای، تعدیلات کوتاه‌مدت بازار زعفران در بین این سه استان تجزیه و تحلیل گردید لذا، اتخاذ سیاست‌های حمایتی قیمتی در خصوص بازار زعفران در بین سه استان پیشنهاد می‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysis the price transmission on saffron market case study: Razavi, North and South Khorasan Provinces

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hashem Mahmoudi 1
  • Samira Afrasiabi 2
1 Ph.D. Student of Agricultural Economics, University of Tabriz
2 M.A. degree in Management of Agriculture, University of Tabriz-Teacher in pnu University.
چکیده [English]

Asymmetric price transmission is instances of market imperfection which can affect consumers’ welfare. Because of this matter, analyzing price transmission in agricultural market is an important issue. Saffron is a strategic agricultural commodity in Iran, which mostly produces in Razavi, North and South Khorasan provinces. In this study saffron’s price behavior in these provinces has been investigated. First Johanson Co-integration and Engel-Granger test have been used to investigate long-run relation between monthly saffron’s prices from 2006- 2011. Then, threshold Co-integration test has been used to examine whether price transmission is symmetric or asymmetric. Plus, Threshold Vector Error Correction model has been used to analysis short-run adjustment in saffron market in these provinces. Main results showed that saffron price transmission in Razavi, north and south khorasan is symmetric. The results show that the market price support policies can be helpful in the three provinces of saffron.     

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Price Transmission
  • Saffron
  • The error correction model
  • Threshold Co-integration

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