بررسی تجربی اثر نوسانات نرخ ارز بر تقاضای صادرات زعفران ایران: رویکرد پویای میان گروهی تلفیقی (PMG)

نوع مقاله: مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

2 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی-بازاریابی محصولات کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

چکیده

نوسانات نرخ ارز به عنوان یک منبع ایجاد ریسک و نااطمینانی اثر بسیار مهمی بر حجم تجارت بین‌الملل و متعاقب آن بر تراز پرداخت‌ها دارد. با توجه به جایگاه مهم زعفران در صادرات غیرنفتی ایران، هدف اصلی این مطالعه بررسی تجربی اثر نوسانات نرخ ارز بر تقاضای صادرات زعفران ایران در 17 بازار مقصد طی دوره‌ی 91-1371 است. استفاده از برآوردگر میان گروهی تلفیقی (PMG) و گارچ نمایی (EGARCH) در چارچوب داده‌های تابلویی وجه تمایز این مطالعه نسبت به مطالعات پیشین است تا بتوان روابط کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت تقاضای صادرات زعفران ایران را برآورد نمود. با در نظر گرفتن سایر تعیین‌کننده‌های تقاضای صادرات، نتایج مطالعه نشان داد، نوسانات نرخ ارز به طور معنی‌داری در بلندمدت اثر مثبتی بر تقاضای صادرات زعفران ایران دارد و این در حالی است که اثر کوتاه‌مدت آن منفی است. بنابراین، شفاف‌‌سازی سیاست‌های ارزی (به خصوص در دوره‌های کوتاه‌مدت) و توسعه بازارهای سلف ارزی نقش بسیار مهمی در جهت کاهش درجه‌ی ریسک-گریزی صادرکنندگان ایران و افزایش صادرات زعفران در بازارهای جهانی ایفا می‌نمایند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Experimental study of the impact of foreign exchange rate fluctuations on Iran's Saffron export demand: A dynamic pooled mean group (PMG) approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Reza Kohansal 1
  • Amirhossein Tohidi 2
1 Professor of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad.
2 Ph.D Student Of Agricultural Economics-Agricultural Products Marketing Field, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad.
چکیده [English]

This study estimate the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on saffron export demand. To this end, the pooled mean group (PMG) approach is used in order to implement the model of auto regressive distributed lag model (ARDL) and vector error correction model (VECM) in the context of panel data. The results showed that, relative price of exports has a negative and significant effect on Iran's saffron export demand. In the short- and long-term, the estimated price elasticity suggests that Iranian saffron export demand is price inelastic. The results indicate that real income effect of importing countries on the export of Iranian saffron is positive. In the short-term, income importing countries has no significantly effect on Iranian saffron export demand, while the long-term effect is significant at the 0.01 level. In both short- and long-term, the results indicate that exchange rate has a significant, positive effect on Iran's saffron export demand. The exchange rate elasticity of export demand for Iran's saffron is elastic in both short- and long-term. Therefore, the devaluation of the Rial, Iran's currency, led to a significant increase in the export of Iranian saffron. Also, the results showed in the short-term, the unpredictability of exchange rate fluctuations lead to increase the degree of risk aversion of exporters of Iranian saffron and so they prefer to deal with this issue by reducing their export. However, in the long-term, the income effect dominates the substitution effect, and exchange rate fluctuations has a positive effect on the export of Iranian saffron by creating profit opportunities.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • International Trade
  • Exchange Rate Policies
  • Uncertainty
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